An Empirical Test of a Diffusion Model: Predicting Clouded Apollo Movements in a Novel Environment

Ovaskainen, Otso; Luoto, Miska; Ikonen, Iiro; Rekola, Hanna; Meyke, Evgeniy; Kuussaari, Mikko

doi:10.1086/587070

Cited by 60 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…For example, it is more computationally expensive to model the motion of organisms by discrete steps than to use the diffusion equation, yet in some cases the latter may describe the behaviour equally faithfully [60]. Moreover, the diffusion equation is more parsimonious as it requires just one parameter (the diffusion constant) to be measured, whereas explicit simulation requires many details.…”

Section: Considerations For Systems Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive systems ecology

et al. 2013

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Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

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Section: Considerations For Systems Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive systems ecology

et al. 2013

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“…as the intrinsic dispersal kernel of the species (cf. Ovaskainen et al ., 2008a). Nevertheless, the qualitative effects uncovered in O. gibbulus come with broader implications for studies of animal movement.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Some like it hot: microclimatic variation affects the abundance and movements of a critically endangered dung beetle

Roslin

Avomaa

Leonard

et al. 2009

Insect Conserv Diversity

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Abstract. 1. Habitat loss and fragmentation is a leading cause of species extinction. This not only concerns loss of major habitats, but also loss of microclimatic heterogeneity within such habitats.2. In this study, we examine the effects of microclimate on the abundance and movements of Onthophagus gibbulus, a dung beetle associated with pastoral habitats. While formerly widespread in Southern Finland, the species is now critically endangered at a national level, persisting within an area of 6 km 2 . 3. We divided the Finnish distribution of O. gibbulus into 50 · 50-m grid cells, characterised local microclimate by incident solar radiation, and surveyed the distribution of O. gibbulus within a subset of cells. To investigate the impact of microclimatic conditions on dung beetle movements, we conducted a mark-release-recapture study.4. Our approach allowed us to estimate the national population size of O. gibbulusa figure rarely available for endangered insect species. The Finnish population of O. gibbulus comprises between 2000 and 6000 individuals.5. The abundance of beetles per dung pat increases with incident solar radiation, and beetles are more likely to move towards warmer than colder spots in the landscape.6. Overall, our study depicts O. gibbulus as a thermophile confined to the warmest part of the landscape, and offers loss of microclimatic variation as the cause for its largescale decline. To conserve O. gibbulus and similar species, we need to consider not only the amount of macrohabitats, but also the amount and distribution of microclimatic variation within them. Future predictions are complicated by ongoing climate change.

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“…We derived parameter estimates separately for males and females as well as for all individuals pooled together. Obtaining sex-specific parameters was important, because inter-sexual differences in dispersal, although often neglected, are typically strong in butterflies (Ovaskainen et al 2008;Schultz et al 2012).…”

Section: Dispersal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Selection on dispersal in isolated butterfly metapopulations

et al. 2013

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In most metapopulation models dispersal is assumed to be a fixed species-specific trait, but in reality dispersal abilities are highly sensitive to various selective pressures. Strict isolation of a metapopulation, which precludes any influx of immigrants (and their genes) from outside and makes it impossible for emigrants to reach other localities with suitable habitat, thus reducing fitness benefits of long-distance dispersal to zero, may be expected to impose strong selection against dispersal. We tested the above prediction by comparing dispersal parameters derived with the Virtual Migration model for isolated and non-isolated metapopulations of two species of large blue Maculinea (= Phengaris) butterflies, surveyed with intensive mark-recapture. Mortality during dispersal was found to be twice (in M. teleius) to five times higher (in M. arion) in isolated metapopulations. Isolation also resulted in significantly reduced dispersal distances in isolated metapopulations, with the effect being particularly strong in M. arion females. Apart from its evolutionary and ecological consequences, dispersal depression in isolated butterfly metapopulations implied by our results has serious conservation implications. It provides a clear argument against using parameter values obtained in a different environmental setting in modelling applications, e.g., Population Viability Analyses or environmental impact assessment. Furthermore, it underlines the importance of establishing well-connected networks of suitable habitats prior to species release in areas where reintroductions are planned.

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An Empirical Test of a Diffusion Model: Predicting Clouded Apollo Movements in a Novel Environment

Cited by 60 publications

References 49 publications

Predictive systems ecology

Predictive systems ecology

Some like it hot: microclimatic variation affects the abundance and movements of a critically endangered dung beetle

Selection on dispersal in isolated butterfly metapopulations

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