An empirical study on the short-term effects of economic sentiment on the direct and indirect investment markets in real estate

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the short-term effects of economic sentiment on both direct and indirect investment markets in the real estate sector. The analysis employs the vector-autoregression, Granger causality, and variance decomposition approaches using monthly returns on the Economic News Sentiment Index, Real Estate Sentiment Index, REITs Infrastructure Index, and Apartment Price Index. The findings indicate that the economic and real estate consumer sentiments have predictive capabilities for both the REITs Infrastructure Index in the indirect real estate investment market and the actual transaction price index of apartments in the direct real estate investment market. This implies that the Economic and Real Estate Consumer Sentiment Index contain valuable information for predicting real estate market prices and can be helpful for policy-making in both markets. While the Real Estate Consumer Sentiment Index is helpful in predicting direct real estate market prices, it does not precede prices in the indirect real estate investment market. In the direct real estate investment market, the actual transaction price of Seoul apartments demonstrates predictive power for the Busan Apartment Price Index.

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