An empirical real-world study of losses disguised as wins in electronic gaming machines

Abstract

Losses disguised as wins (LDWs) appear to reinforce gambling persistence. However, little research has examined this phenomenon with real gamblers in natural gambling settings. We aimed to examine the relationship between within-session outcome size and subsequent gambling persistence. Account-based gambling data of individuals playing LDW games over a randomly selected day (2,035,339 bets made by 8636 individuals) was examined. We used a logistic mixed effects model to examine the relationship between the outcome of the previous bet (loss, LDW and real wins) and the odds of continuing betting in a game session. The odds of continuing betting in a game session were positively associated with the outcome of the previous bet. Compared to LDWs, losses lowered the odds of continuing a game session. In contrast, real wins implied greater odds of continuing a game session compared to LDWs. It is concluded that LDWs increase the likelihood of continuing betting compared to losses, but decrease the likelihood of continuing to gamble compared to real wins. As LDWs increase the number of bets made within a gambling session, and hence within-session gambling persistence, LDWs may potentially play an etiological role in the development of gambling problems over time.

Gambling on Smartphones: A Study of a Potentially Addictive Behaviour in a Naturalistic Setting

“…The game was designed so that there was a positive expected value in the long run, even if each individual trial participant was more likely to lose. Data from gambling machines suggest that larger wins are associated with shorter gambling sessions [43], but an increased likelihood of gambling on the next play [44], thus emphasising the need to validate these results with games more overtly similar to other forms of gambling to confirm the generalisability of this approach. Giving users free gambles at the beginning of the experiment might help in this regard; betting companies frequently offer free bets at enhanced odds, and mobile games with stamina systems are designed for a larger bout of play at the beginning of the experience.…”

Cognitive neuroscience can support public health approaches to minimise the harm of ‘losses disguised as wins’ in multiline slot machines

“…An investigation of design documents (probability and accounting reports, or PAR sheets) for two commercial slot machines has revealed that when betting on all lines, LDWs occur more frequently than true wins (Dixon et al ., ; Harrigan et al ., ). This is further consistent with reports of outcome frequency in multiline slot machines evident in a randomly selected day of play from 8636 player accounts in Norway (Leino et al ., ) . This increase in the potential rate of reinforcement would occur in parallel to a reduced probability of standard losses, leading to fewer perceived losing streaks on average.…”

“…Leino et al . () reported that the odds of terminating a session of play was higher following a loss, than a LDW.…”

“…The aforementioned analysis of player account data in Norway supports this hypothesis. Leino et al (2016) reported that the odds of terminating a session of play was higher following a loss, than a LDW.…”

“…If possible such designs should seek cooperation with regulators to randomise policy roll out by location. Such designs, and research into gambling harm in general, can be markedly improved by access to player account data, which can be a condition of gambling licences or provided by state operators (Leino et al, 2016). While pragmatically very challenging, these studies overcome many of the limitations of non-longitudinal, small sample laboratory experiments that often do not include a clinical sample.…”