An Empirical Model for Estimating the Velocities and Delays of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

Abstract

We studied the behavior of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection velocity as a function of thesource heliolongitude (associated solar flare), initial ejection velocity, and background solar wind velocity.The modeling is based on data on 364 ejections of solar matter accompanied by flares observed in theSOHO/LASCO coronograph, whose interplanetary analogues were subsequently recorded near the Earth inthe period from 1995 to 2021. A model is described that makes it possible to estimate the transit and maximumvelocities of the corresponding interplanetary disturbance, as well as the time of its arrival to the Earth. Theaverage absolute error in estimating the propagation time of interplanetary coronal mass ejections for the considered364 events is 11.5 h, and the average relative error is 16.5%.