An Empirical Approach to Estimating the Probability of Innocently Acquiring Bloodstains of Different ABO Groups on Clothing

Gettinby, G.

doi:10.1016/s0015-7368(84)72316-4

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…During the past 15 years, forensic scientists have devoted much effort to studying the incidence rate of various characteristics of hair (Gaudette & Keeping, 1974), soil (Saferstein, 1977, pp. 63–64), glass (Fong, 1973; Davis & DeHaan, 1977), paint (Pearson et al, 1971), and bodily fluids (Owens & Smalldon, 1975; Briggs, 1978; Gettinby, 1984). Statistical data from this literature are increasingly presented in criminal trials (Imwinkelried, 1982b; Note, 1983).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpretation of statistical evidence in criminal trials: The prosecutor's fallacy and the defense attorney's fallacy.

Thompson

Schumann

1987

Law and Human Behavior

318

209

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In criminal cases where the evidence shows a match between the defendant and the perpetrator on some characteristic, the jury often receives statistical evidence on the incidence rate of the "matching" characteristic. Two experiments tested undergraduates' ability to use such evidence appropriately when judging the probable guilt of a criminal suspect based on written descriptions of evidence. Experiment 1 varied whether incidence rate statistics were presented as conditional probabilities or as percentages, and found the former promoted inferential errors favoring the prosecution while the latter produced more errors favoring the defense. Experiment 2 exposed subjects to two fallacious arguments on how to interpret the statistical evidence. The majority of subjects failed to detect the error in one or both of the arguments and made judgments consistent with fallacious reasoning. In both experiments a comparison of subjects' judgments to Bayesian norms revealed a general tendency to underutilize the statistical evidence. Theoretical and legal implications of these results are discussed. * This research was supported by grants to the first author from the National Science Foundation (No.SES 86-05323) and the UCI Academic Senate Committee on Research. The authors wish to thank Karen Rook and Robyn M. Dawes for comments on earlier versions of this article and John Van-Vlear for help in collecting data.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpretation of statistical evidence in criminal trials: The prosecutor's fallacy and the defense attorney's fallacy.

Thompson

Schumann

1987

Law and Human Behavior

318

209

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The relative indices of efficiency for selected enzyme methods of bloodstain analysis have been compared, The methods are listed according to their efficiencies with enzyme group I system being the most efficient and enzyme group III system being the least (322). Statistics and probabilities in paternity testing have been discussed in the forensic literature and applied in a variety of ways (323)(324)(325)(326)(327)(328)(329)(330)(331)(332). A new peptidase isoenzyme which may assist in the identification of vaginal debris has been detected (333).…”

Section: Forensic Biochemistrymentioning

confidence: 99%