An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuations on China’s Grain Yield

Xie, Hualin; Wang, Bohao

doi:10.3390/su9060906

Cited by 38 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(6 reference statements)

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“…This research investigates carrot price as one of the factors which could contribute to market inefficiencies and encourage farmers to leave carrot production if they believe that their welfare is violated. Such behaviour is explained by cobweb theory arguing that production depends on the price during the previous period [28]. The paper also contributes to the academic literature which states that a traditional markup concept often does not explain price behaviour in the market, because we often observe the lagged or incomplete price transmission among the supply chain [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Lithuanian carrot market: production, foreign trade, and price transmission issues

Jurkėnaitė¹,

Paparas²

2019

Ukr. food j.

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Introduction. The paper aims to analyse the situation in Lithuanian carrot market and focus on the changes of agricultural production, structure of foreign trade, and vertical price transmission along the supply chain over the period of 2011-2017. Materials and methods. Methods of comparative and graphical analysis of the main indicators of carrot production and foreign trade development rely on the secondary data of Statistics Lithuania. The research on the vertical price transmission along the supply chain of domestic carrots relies on price series collected by SE 'Agricultural Information and Rural Business Centre' and employs unit root tests, cointegration, causality and asymmetry tests. Results and discussion. The conducted research evidences that over the analysed seven years carrot production in Lithuania has shrank. Harvested area dropped from 2,400 to 1,800 ha, while the harvest reduced by more than 1/3. The key driving forces behind the negative development trends were prolonged unfavourable weather conditions and the Russian import ban of 2014. The transformation of the export structure took place during the unsuccessful harvesting years and contributed to the worsening of farmers' welfare. The analysis of the farm-retail prices shows that the examined series are integrated of I(1). Thus, we found a significant structural break in April 2015, which has been included as a dummy variable in the cointegration approaches. The Engle-Granger cointegration test confirms the presence of the long-run relationship between the analysed price series. The Granger causality test shows that the causality is running from retail to farm prices. Finally, there is a strong evidence of symmetric price behaviour, i.e. positive and negative shocks are transmitted from retailers to farmers with the same intensity. Conclusions. The study shows that the prolonged unfavourable weather conditions and the Russian import ban were among the main contributors determining price fluctuations on the Lithuanian carrot market in 2011-2017. The analysis of vertical price transmission of domestic carrots indicates that retailers may experience some market power.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Lithuanian carrot market: production, foreign trade, and price transmission issues

Jurkėnaitė¹,

Paparas²

2019

Ukr. food j.

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“…The second view is that the cost of production is the main factor in fresh vegetables price formation. The changes in labor and cultivation cost, as part of production cost, will affect the price of fresh vegetables [19]. However, some authors do not support this view, and use the inter-provincial panel data PAVR model to prove that the cost of vegetable production has a weak impact on the formation of vegetable prices [20].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Emerging Country Agro-Food Supply Chains: Fresh Vegetable Price Formation Mechanisms in Rural China

Cao

Mohiuddin

2019

Sustainability

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Price formation mechanisms along the supply chain determine the economic viability of effective agro-food supply chains in emerging countries with small-scale subsistence-based agricultural activities. This study offers an analysis of the price formation mechanism along the Chinese fresh vegetable supply chain. It analyzes the features of market transactions in the upstream and downstream greenhouse cucumber supply chain, and presents an elastic model of pricing in the fresh and raw vegetable market in China. Based on the daily procurement price data of 78 cases in Lingyuan (Liaoning Province, China), and the wholesale price of 78 cases in Xinfadi (Beijing, China), the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, co-integration test, and Granger test were applied to reveal the relationship between the prices. Findings indicate that the price of fresh and raw vegetables is formed at the wholesale market, where after it cascades from wholesalers to direct buyers (primary merchants) and farmers, and is passed on to retailers and consumers, where the final market price is formed. Farmers exhibit bounded rationality decision-making, that is, they can only passively accept price fluctuations. Buyers (primary merchants, wholesalers’ agents, and retailers) at each level extract fixed rewards, while making no additional contribution to the price fluctuations along the chain. The wholesalers enjoy an oligopolistic competition market and can better take advantage of the asymmetric information to accommodate market demand.

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“…Moreover, the usefulness of these approaches depends of the local market context. For example, in China, the high volatility of the prices lead to ANN models or hybrid models to get a better fit than the Box-Jenkins methodology [7,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Price Forecasting and Span Commercialization Opportunities for Mexican Agricultural Products

2019

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Decision-making based on data analysis leads to knowing market trends and anticipating risks and opportunities. These allow farmers to improve their production plan as well as their chances to get an economic success. The aim of this work was to develop a methodology for price forecasting of fruits and vegetables using Queretaro state, MX as a case study. The daily prices of several fruits and vegetables were extracted, from January 2009 to February 2019, from the National System of Market Information. Then, these prices were used to compute the weekly average price of each product and their span commercialization in Q4 and over the median of historical data. Moreover, product characterization was performed to propose a methodology for future price forecasting of multiple agricultural products within the same mathematical model and it resulted in the identification of 18 products that fit the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. Finally, future price estimation and validation was performed to explain the product price fluctuations between weeks and it was found that the relative error for most of products modeled was less than 10%, e.g., Hass avocado (7.01%) and Saladette tomato (8.09%). The results suggest the feasibility for the implementation of systems to provide information for better decisions by Mexican farmers.

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An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuations on China’s Grain Yield

Cited by 38 publications

References 16 publications

Lithuanian carrot market: production, foreign trade, and price transmission issues

Lithuanian carrot market: production, foreign trade, and price transmission issues

Sustainable Emerging Country Agro-Food Supply Chains: Fresh Vegetable Price Formation Mechanisms in Rural China

Price Forecasting and Span Commercialization Opportunities for Mexican Agricultural Products

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