An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm−2 radiative forcing

Abstract

Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm −2 ) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO 2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO 2 and N 2 O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models.

RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

“…As indicated in the introduction, however, we also use the MESSAGE model for the development of mitigation scenarios that use the RCP8.5 as a baseline. As targets for the mitigation scenarios we adopt forcing levels of 2.6, 4.5 and 6 W/m 2 by the end of the century, which corresponds to the same radiative forcing levels as assumed by the other RCPs in this SI (see van Vuuren et al 2011b;Thomson et al 2011;Masui et al 2011). For each mitigation scenario the MESSAGE optimization model computes least-cost pathways to stay below the specified target.…”

A special issue on the RCPs

“…The papers on the individual RCPs by Riahi et al (2011), Masui et al (2011, Thomson et al (2011) andVan Vuuren et al (2011b) describe them in more detail (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6). These papers briefly discuss the modeling systems that have created each RCP, the main socio-economic assumptions, the underlying trends in energy use and details on emissions and land use.…”

From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

“…The climate change scenarios used for the projections followed three of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) reported in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data: RCP 8.5 (~8.5 W m −2 stabilized after 2100, slightly more severe than SRES A2), which corresponds to a Bnon-climate policy^sce-nario translating into high severity climate change impacts, a moderate mitigation scenario RCP 6.0 (stabilization at 6 W m − 2 by 2100, similar to SRES A1B) requiring a climate-policy intervention, and a stronger mitigation scenario RCP 4.5 (~4. 5 W m −2 stabilized after 2100, similar to the lowest-emission scenarios, B1) assuming the imposition of a series of emission mitigation policies (Masui et al 2011;Riahi 2011;Thomson et al 2011). Six CMIP5 models under three RCPs (8.5, 6.0, and 4.5) for the 2070s were used to avoid the bias related to the choice of a particular global climate model (GCM): CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M.…”