An Emergency Decision Making Method for Different Situation Response Based on Game Theory and Prospect Theory

Abstract

Because of the continuous burst of emergency events (EEs) recently, emergency decision making (EDM) has become an active research topic due to its crucial role in relieving and reducing various losses and damages (property, lives, environment, etc.) caused by EEs. Current EDM studies based on prospect theory (PT) have considered decision maker’s (DM’s) psychological behavior, which is very important in the EDM process because it affects DM’s decision behavior directly, particularly under the uncertainty decision environment. However, those studies neglected an important fact that different emergency situations should be handled by different measures to show the pertinence and effectiveness of the emergency response in the real world, which has been taken into consideration in EDM studies based on game theory (GT). Different behavior experiments show that DMs usually have limited rationality when involved in risk and an uncertain decision environment, in which their psychological behavior has distinct impacts on their decision choice and behavior. Nevertheless, the existing studies of EDM based on GT build on an assumption that DMs are totally rational; however, it is obvious that such an assumption is unreasonable and far from the real-world situation. Motivated by these limitations pointed out previously, this study proposes a novel EDM method combining GT and PT that considers not only the DM’s psychological behavior, but also takes different situations’ handling for EEs into account, which is closer to the EDM problems in reality. An example and comparison with other methods are provided to demonstrate the validity and rationality of the proposed method for coping with real-world EDM problems.

A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information

“…en, calculate the maximum satisfactory degree τ * (x (p+1)k ij ) on the alternative A p+1 i by equation (12). By comparing τ * (x (p+1)k ij ) and τ * (x pk ij ), we can get the following: ) and the optimal weight w * (p+1)k � (w * (p+1)1 , w * (p+1)2 , .…”

“…Zhang et al enumerated all possible situations by the dynamic evolution information of emergency and proposed a linear programming selection model to determine the optimal alternative for each situation [11]. en, Zhang et al researched another approach to solve the EDM problem based on game theory, where the different situations were regarded as the strategies between emergencies and DMs [12]. With the emerging information technologies, data mining method was introduced to analyse public attribute preferences for emergency risk decision-making [13].…”

Evaluation of the Quality Supervision System for Construction Projects in China Considering the Quality Behavior Risk Transmission

“…The evolutionary game is a dynamic game method based on bounded rationality to study the process of the strategy selection of players, which can simulate a conflict of interest among different players [12,13]. In most existing studies, the evolutionary game has been used to analyze the conflict of interest between the government and the participants.…”

Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Method Based on Prospect Theory in Heterogeneous Information Environment and Its Application in Typhoon Disaster Assessment

“…In the face of emergencies, especially after the disaster, the psychological factors of decision makers play a key role in decision-making, and the research on this aspect is still rare. PT introduced by Kahneman et al [42,43] provides a simple and clear computation process to describe the psychological behavior using reference points, losses, gains, and overall prospect values [44]. So it has been widely applied in the various fields to solve the practical problems considering human being's psychological behavior.…”