An elaborated feeding cycle model for reductions in vectorial capacity of night-biting mosquitoes by insecticide-treated nets

Menach, Arnaud Le; Takala, Shannon L.; McKenzie, F. Ellis; Périssé, André R. S.; Harris, Anthony D.; Flahault, Antoine; Smith, David L.

doi:10.1186/1475-2875-6-10

Cited by 111 publications

(154 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(28 reference statements)

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“…The effects estimated, however, were very low, particularly at the level of the entire population [11,31,32]. It has also been speculated that total population morbidity could increase with increased bednet coverage in a case where bednets were combined with vaccines that could affect the population immunity of specific vulnerable host groups [35].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In cases where the treatment does not kill the vectors, V(x) is expected to be constant (assuming that the vector population is at equilibrium), when h . 0, V(x) may decrease with x (it can be, of course, that a treatment, such as ITN, does not substantially affect the vector population size) [31]. From the model equations (electronic supplementary material, equation S1), the vector equilibrial population is r/d, where r is the vector's fixed birth rate that is assumed to be limited by other factors in the habitat (e.g.…”

Section: Model Outlinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The expression r/d enables us to calculate the decrease in the vector population size due to the killing effect of ITN via d in equation (2.4). We add the factor exp(2dL) to equation (2.1) and obtain equation (2.5) to account for the decrease in R 0 due to a possible vector latency period, L. This factor represents the probability that an infected vector will survive the fixed latent period, L, and becomes infectious [6,31]. Definitions of all model parameters can be found in table 1.…”

Section: Model Outlinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(malaria vectors) [6,31]. We have chosen a range of h between 0 (bed nets without killing effect) and 0.3.…”

Section: The Dependency Of R 0 On the Use Of Bednets Insecticide-trementioning

confidence: 99%

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The risk of incomplete personal protection coverage in vector-borne disease

Miller

Dushoff

Huppert

2016

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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Personal protection (PP) techniques, such as insecticide-treated nets, repellents and medications, include some of the most important and commonest ways used today to protect individuals from vector-borne infectious diseases. In this study, we explore the possibility that a PP intervention with partial coverage may have the counterintuitive effect of increasing disease burden at the population level, by increasing the biting intensity on the unprotected portion of the population. To this end, we have developed a dynamic model which incorporates parameters that describe the potential effects of PP on vector searching and biting behaviour and calculated its basic reproductive rate, R 0 . R 0 is a well-established threshold of disease risk; the higher R 0 is above unity, the stronger the disease onset intensity. When R 0 is below unity, the disease is typically unable to persist. The model analysis revealed that partial coverage with popular PP techniques can realistically lead to a substantial increase in the reproductive number. An increase in R 0 implies an increase in disease burden and difficulties in eradication efforts within certain parameter regimes. Our findings therefore stress the importance of studying vector behavioural patterns in response to PP interventions for future mitigation of vector-borne diseases.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Outlinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Outlinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(malaria vectors) [6,31]. We have chosen a range of h between 0 (bed nets without killing effect) and 0.3.…”

Section: The Dependency Of R 0 On the Use Of Bednets Insecticide-trementioning

confidence: 99%

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The risk of incomplete personal protection coverage in vector-borne disease

Miller

Dushoff

Huppert

2016

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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“…The impact of IRS and ITNs on the adult mosquito population is modelled here using the approach of Griffin et al [81] and White et al [65] (an extension of the model in [94]), which assumes that these interventions increase adult mortality rate, increase gonotrophic cycle duration, affect the proportion of bites taken on protected and unprotected humans, and change the proportion of bites taken on humans relative to animals [81]. In the White model, the effect of implementing ITNs (assumed to be LLINs) and IRS on model parametrization is to modify the adult mortality rate from its baseline value of m A (0) (when there is zero rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org Phil.…”

Section: (D) Modelling the Impact Of Vector-control Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios

Parham

Hughes

2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change.

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References

2016

Spatial Agent‐Based Simulation Modeling in Public Health

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An elaborated feeding cycle model for reductions in vectorial capacity of night-biting mosquitoes by insecticide-treated nets

Abstract: Background: Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) are an important tool for malaria control. ITNs are effective because they work on several parts of the mosquito feeding cycle, including both adult killing and repelling effects.

Cited by 111 publications

References 27 publications

The risk of incomplete personal protection coverage in vector-borne disease

The risk of incomplete personal protection coverage in vector-borne disease

Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios

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