An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for Earth system modelling

Williamson, Mark S.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Shepherd, J. G.; Edwards, Neil R.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.05.027

Cited by 59 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Recent developments (Marsh et al, 2011) include the incorporation of stratification-dependent mixing, a more general equation of state through a parameterization of thermo-baricity, and improvements to the representation of fixed wind forcing. The land surface component is ENTS, a dynamic model of terrestrial carbon storage (Williamson et al, 2006) with a relatively simple implementation of spatiotemporal land-use change . Ocean chemistry is modelled with BIOGEM , including iron limitation , and is coupled to the sediment model SEDGEM with fixed weathering, diagnosed during the model spin-up to simulated observed ocean alkalinity .…”

Section: Appendix a Model Descriptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interior ocean ventilation is well calibrated against natural radiocarbon on centennial timescale and against transient anthropogenic tracers on decadal timescale. Here MESMO1 is coupled to a simple prognostic land biosphere model (Williamson et al, 2006) that calculates energy, moisture, and carbon exchanges between the land and the atmosphere. Prognostic variables include vegetation and soil carbon as well as land surface albedo and temperature.…”

Section: Appendix a Model Descriptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

et al. 2013

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Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO₂, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO₂ and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO₂ experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO₂ forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO₂ between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO₂, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions

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Section: Appendix a Model Descriptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Appendix a Model Descriptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

et al. 2013

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“…The climate model emulator used here is PLASIM-ENTSem (Holden et al, 2013), an emulation of PLASIM-ENTS, Fraedrich et al (2005) coupled to the ENTS vegetation and land surface model (Williamson et al, 2006), here run at T21 resolution (approximately 5 degree).…”

Section: Climate Model: Plasim-entsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

Labriet¹,

Joshi

Vielle

et al. 2013

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 (General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and Environment) models are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS (Planet-Simulator -Efficient Numerical Terrestrial Scheme). The key results are as follows. At the global level, the climate feedback induced by adaptation of the energy system to heating and cooling is found to be insignificant, partly because heating and cooling-induced changes compensate and partly because they represent a limited share of total final energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of additional power capacity required to satisfy additional cooling services, resulting in increases in electricity prices. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains and losses are associated more with changes in energy exports and imports than with changes in energy consumption for heating and cooling. The rebound effect appears to be non-negligible.To conclude, the coupling of models of different nature was successful and showed that the energy and economic impacts of climate change on heating and cooling remain small at the global level, but changes in energy needs will be visible at more local scale.

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“…A separate expression is applied when T l < 273.15 K to prevent unrealistic blow-up of the soil reservoir as T l approaches k 32 (see Williamson et al, 2006). Snow covered albedo is given by We note that parameter values above for k 24 and k 29 differ from the values applied in Williamson et al (2006).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model-based constraint on CO<sub>2</sub> fertilisation

et al. 2013

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Abstract. We derive a constraint on the strength of CO 2 fertilisation of the terrestrial biosphere through a "top-down" approach, calibrating Earth system model parameters constrained by the post-industrial increase of atmospheric CO 2 concentration. We derive a probabilistic prediction for the globally averaged strength of CO 2 fertilisation in nature, for the period 1850 to 2000 AD, implicitly net of other limiting factors such as nutrient availability. The approach yields an estimate that is independent of CO 2 enrichment experiments. To achieve this, an essential requirement was the incorporation of a land use change (LUC) scheme into the GENIE Earth system model. Using output from a 671-member ensemble of transient GENIE simulations, we build an emulator of the change in atmospheric CO 2 concentration change since the preindustrial period. We use this emulator to sample the 28-dimensional input parameter space. A Bayesian calibration of the emulator output suggests that the increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) in response to a doubling of CO 2 from preindustrial values is very likely (90 % confidence) to exceed 20 %, with a most likely value of 40-60 %. It is important to note that we do not represent all of the possible contributing mechanisms to the terrestrial sink. The missing processes are subsumed into our calibration of CO 2 fertilisation, which therefore represents the combined effect of CO 2 fertilisation and additional missing processes. If the missing processes are a net sink then our estimate represents an upper bound. We derive calibrated estimates of carbon fluxes that are consistent with existing estimates. The present-day land-atmosphere flux (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) is estimated at −0.7 GTC yr −1 (likely, 66 % confidence, in the range 0.4 to −1.7 GTC yr −1 ). The present-day ocean-atmosphere flux (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) is estimated to be −2.3 GTC yr −1 (likely in the range −1.8 to −2.7 GTC yr −1 ). We estimate cumulative net land emissions over the post-industrial period (land use change emissions net of the CO 2 fertilisation and climate sinks) to be 66 GTC, likely to lie in the range 0 to 128 GTC.

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An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for Earth system modelling

Cited by 59 publications

References 21 publications

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

A model-based constraint on CO<sub>2</sub> fertilisation

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An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for Earth system modelling

Cited by 59 publications

References 21 publications

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

A model-based constraint on CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fertilisation

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

A model-based constraint on CO<sub>2</sub> fertilisation