An efficient Bayesian framework for updating PAGER loss estimates

Noh, Hae Young; Jaiswal, Kishor; Engler, D.; Wald, David J.

doi:10.1177/8755293020944177

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…One potential avenue to adapting the results of our approach to incoming real‐time information would be through Bayesian methods: in this framework, stopping criteria estimated via our method could be used as the prior distribution. Similar approaches interested in estimating earthquake losses have utilized these techniques to provide better loss constraints by including ongoing loss update information (Noh et al., 2020). These types of approaches have also been applied to other cases of induced seismicity to produce adaptive TLPs (Ader et al., 2020; Mignan et al., 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Strategy for Choosing Red‐Light Thresholds to Manage Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity in North America

2021

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Induced earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing are a growing concern, with risks that are often managed by traffic light protocols (TLPs). Here, we apply a risk‐informed strategy for choosing TLP red‐light thresholds. We utilize a combination of probabilistic maximum magnitudes, formation depth, site amplification, ground motion relationships, felt/damaging shaking tolerances, and population information to simulate the spatial distribution of nuisance and damage impacts. We apply this approach to many of the prominent North American shale plays that have caused earthquakes: the Horn River Basin, the Duvernay Formation, the Montney Formation, the Utica Shale, the Marcellus Shale, the SCOOP & STACK play in Oklahoma, the Eagle Ford Formation, and the Delaware Basin. We find that induced earthquake impacts are spatially heterogeneous, depending most strongly on population density. These spatial heterogeneities vary on different length scales, depending on if they are related to nuisance (longer range, 100s kms) or damage (shorter range, 10s kms). Because of this variability, we suggest an approach that sets red‐light magnitudes based on tolerances to nuisance and damage risks (varying between Mw 2.0–5.0). Comparison of the results between North American shale plays where TLPs have been enacted suggests that nuisance risks have been an influencing factor in determining red‐light thresholds. Our method provides quantitative guidelines for traffic light protocols designed in a risk‐informed manner that retains the implementational simplicity of magnitude‐based thresholds. In addition, our results provide a benchmark for jurisdictional nuisance tolerances that future TLPs could be guided by.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Strategy for Choosing Red‐Light Thresholds to Manage Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity in North America

2021

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“…We recently described two strategies underway aimed at updating uncertain ground failure and loss models (Wald, Xu, et al., 2022). The first uses reported fatalities to update PAGER fatality estimates (Noh et al., 2020). The second strategy utilizes satellite imagery (NASA's damage proxy maps) within a model updating strategy that uses a Bayesian Causal Graph to determine where and what specific earthquake processes—shaking, landsliding, or liquefaction—contributed to post‐earthquake image changes (Xu et al., 2022).…”

Section: Looking Forwardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alerting the Globe of Consequential Earthquakes

Wald

2023

Perspectives of Earth and Spac

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The primary ingredients on the hazard side of the equation include the rapid characterization of the earthquake source and quantifying the spatial distribution of the shaking, plus any secondary hazards an earthquake may have triggered. On the earthquake impact side, loss calculations require the aforementioned hazard assessments—and their uncertainties—as input, plus the quantification of the exposure and vulnerability of structures, infrastructure, and the affected inhabitants. Lastly, effectively communicating uncertain estimates of the resulting impacts on society requires careful consideration of its function and form. All these aspects of rapid earthquake information delivery entailed wide‐ranging collaborative research and development among seismologists, earthquake engineers, geographers, social scientists, Information Technology professionals, and communication experts, leveraging diverse components and ingredients not achievable without extensive collaboration. I was very fortunate to be able to work on interesting and useful projects with many colleagues who got involved with them. Advances in content, its rapid delivery, and our ability to better communicate uncertain loss estimates greatly expanded the range of users and critical decision‐makers who could directly benefit from rapid post‐earthquake information. Moreover, in the critical user–developer feedback loop, we have intently followed requests from users to develop new ways of delivering the most‐requested post‐earthquake information within the limitations of the science and technology. Such new avenues and tools then motivated and prioritized additional research directions and developments.

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“…Bayesian frameworks are recently gaining attention as model updating schemes (De Risi et al, 2021;Foster et al, 2019;Noh et al, 2020;Powers et al, 2021;Silva et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bayesian frameworks are recently gaining attention as model updating schemes (De Risi et al, 2021; Foster et al, 2019; Noh et al, 2020; Powers et al, 2021; Silva et al, 2020). The main idea behind the Bayesian framework lies in the Bayes theorem, which proposes an equation to update existing knowledge based on the arrival of new information (Bayes, 1763).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Updating proxy-based site amplification map with in-situ data in Osaka, Japan: A Bayesian scheme based on uncertainty projected mapping

Chakraborty,

Goto,

Sawada

2023

Earthquake Spectra

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Site amplification maps are mostly proxy-based. Often due to the absence of in-situ data at the regional or local scale, a high level of confidence cannot be assigned to the site amplifications. It has often been observed that the in-situ amplifications differ from proxy-based estimates. So, whenever new in-situ data are made available, it is necessary to update the proxy-based estimates. Bayesian frameworks are recently gaining attention as model updating schemes. This study proposes a Bayesian scheme for updating proxy-based maps with in-situ data. This scheme is based on uncertainty projected mapping (UPM), where the significance of local in-situ data variability determines the posterior estimates. The study area is in Osaka, Japan, where discrepancies in proxy-based estimates and observed ground motions were documented during the 2018 Northern Osaka earthquake. Dense borehole data from the Kansai Geo-informatics Network are available in this area. Peak ground velocity (PGV) site amplification evaluations from this dense borehole network are used as likelihoods to update the prior proxy-based Japan seismic hazard information system (J-SHIS) site amplification map. As a result, the posterior map shows updated site amplification estimates which better represent the in-situ data. The updated site amplification map is then used to investigate the role of site amplification in explaining the building damage during the 2018 Northern Osaka earthquake.

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An efficient Bayesian framework for updating PAGER loss estimates

Cited by 8 publications

References 10 publications

A Strategy for Choosing Red‐Light Thresholds to Manage Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity in North America

A Strategy for Choosing Red‐Light Thresholds to Manage Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity in North America

Alerting the Globe of Consequential Earthquakes

Updating proxy-based site amplification map with in-situ data in Osaka, Japan: A Bayesian scheme based on uncertainty projected mapping

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