An effective approach for analysis of shoreline change and determination of its future location using satellite imagery: A case study of the Lake Burdur, Turkey

Abstract

Lake shoreline changes can have a significant impact on the biodiversity and ecosystems of wetland. This study was aimed to calculate the coastal change of Lake Burdur in Turkey during the elapsed period from 2013 to 2023. Within this framework both remote sensing based aproach and Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) was performed using Landsat-7 (TM) and Landsat-8 (OLI) images. To estimate shoreline change rates along the coastal zone, statistical parameters such as End Point Rate (EPR), Linear Regression Rate (LRR), and Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) were calculated. A hybrid algorithm, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Tasseled Cap Analysis, is utilized to emphasize the distinction between the lake bodies and coastal zone. The maximum shoreline change in the northeast part of the lake was observed, and it resulted in a change of 543.12 m/yr for EPR and 610.07 m/yr for LRR statistics in the 2013-2023 time period. The lake to land position has only been observed in a small amount which are resulted in for EPR -4.91 m/yr. and -3.17 m/yr for LRR statistics. The lake area decreased from 139 km2 to 118 km2 between 2013 and 2023. The results indicate that if the decision-maker does not measure, the area of the lake will be lost by 14% until 2033 and 27% until 2043.