An economic analysis of a contingency model utilising vaccination for the control of equine influenza in a non-endemic country

Abstract

BackgroundEquine influenza (EI) is an infectious respiratory disease of horses that has never been reported in New Zealand (NZ). However, the 2007 EI outbreak in Australia, previously EI free, spurred the NZ government and stakeholders into evaluating alternative EI control strategies in order to economically justify any future decision to eradicate or manage EI. To build on the policy debate, this paper presents an epinomic (epidemiologic and economic) modelling approach to evaluate alternative control strategies. An epidemiologic model to determine how alternative EI control strategies influence the distribution of EI. Model results were then input into a cost-benefit analysis framework, to identify the return and feasibility of alternative EI eradication strategies in NZ.MethodsThe article explores nine alternative eradication scenarios and two baseline strategies. The alternative scenarios consisted of three vaccination strategies (suppressive, protective or targeted) starting at three time points to reflect the commercial breeding-cycle. These alternatives were compared to two breeding-cycle adjusted baselines: movement restriction in the breeding season (August to January) or non-breeding season (February to July). The economic loss parameters were incursion response, impact to the commercial racing industry (breeding, sales and racing), horse morbidity and mortality, and compensation to industry participants.Results and conclusionsResults suggest that the economic viability of the EI eradication programme is dependent on when within the breeding-cycle the EI outbreak occurs. If an outbreak were to occur, the return on each dollar invested for protective or suppressive vaccination strategies would be between NZD$3.67 to NZD$4.89 and between NZD$3.08 to NZD$3.50 in the breeding and non-breeding seasons, respectively. Therefore, protective or suppressive vaccination strategies could be prioritised, regardless of season. As multiple industry stakeholders benefit from these strategies, the study will enable policy development and to better formulate a user-pays eradication programme.

Investigation of cross‐regional spread and evolution of equine influenza H3N8 at US and global scales using Bayesian phylogeography based on balanced subsampling

“…Equine influenza virus (EIV) is a type A influenza virus causing significant upper respiratory symptoms such as pyrexia, dry cough and nasal discharge in equids and mainly spread through direct contact in close proximity (Cullinane & Newton, 2013). Since the first EIV detection in early 1950s, its infections have been a well‐known burden for the equine health and resulted in severe economic losses for the global equine industry (Bryant et al., 2009; Cowled et al., 2009; Cullinane & Newton, 2013; Rosanowski et al., 2019; Smyth et al., 2011; Yamanaka et al., 2008). In the 1960s and 1970s, both H7N7 and H3N8 subtypes were co‐circulated in the global equid population with a few exceptional avian‐origin EIV infections (Abdel‐Moneim et al., 2010; Guo et al., 1992; Scholtens et al., 1964; Sovinova et al., 1958).…”

Preparing for animal health emergencies: considerations for economic evaluation

“…While evaluation, monitoring and research may identify and detect known risks, it is the unknown issues that pose the true complication for emergency response. For known risks, a level of risk can be calculated, the critical entry points identified, and management responses that reduce the risk and provide the greatest net welfare benefit to society can be devised (27). While these forecasts may be imperfect, they can be upgraded over time, adding greater clarity to what is known.…”

Equine Science in Australasia: past, present and future

“…This fund, in conjunction with the existing New Zealand Equine Research Foundation, provided opportunities for the expansion of equine industry research. Both these funding bodies have shown significant insight in funding highly applied industry relevant projects that have assisted both the national and international equine industry (Rosanowski et al 2019;Rogers et al 2020).…”