An econometric model of the Russian Federation

The 1998 Russian crisis: could the exchange rate volatility have predicted it?

“…The policy implications of this model has been discussed in Basdevant (2000). Nevertheless this contribution, insisting on the role of expectations in the crisis, completes an analysis that has stressed the key role of public investments.…”

“…Basically the Russian economy still needs to rebuild its capital stock (see Basdevant, 2000;Hall & Basdevant, 1999). Therefore the representation of the economy in this model emphasises that a more pro-active economic policy should help in fostering investment and improve the economic situation, in the short-as well as the medium-term.…”

“…A further objective is to demonstrate a new methodology, which allows an econometric model to be used to forecast the possibility of financial crises. The origin of the Russian crisis lay in structural problems: mainly capital stock obsolescence and shortage (see Basdevant, 2000or Hall & Basdevant, 1999 as well as institutional ones. In particular the two main aspects are: the co-operation (or lack of) between industry and the banking system, and the inefficiency of markets (there is no real market clearing, and non-cash transactions are widespread).…”

“…In Section 5 a summarised structure of the model is presented. The completed model is presented and discussed in Basdevant (2000).…”

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AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to examine the exchange rate volatility of the ruble, before the August 1998 crisis, using a macro-economic model of the Russian Federation developed by Basdevant (2000

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