An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Based Forecasting of Ionospheric Total Electron Content at a low latitude Indian Location

Vankadara, Ram Kumar; Sasmal, Sudipta; Maurya, Amit Kumar; Panda, Sampad Kumar

doi:10.23919/ursi-rcrs56822.2022.10118532

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Considering the importance of the location, a modern multi-constellation and multi-frequency GISTM receiver (Septentrio-PolaRx5S) has been established recently in the year 2021 that records the slant TEC from all the available constellations along with the scintillation indices and several other parameters [68]. Preliminary observations from this high-end monitoring unit confirmed instances of scintillations and loss of lock scenarios due to intense scintillation activity in October 2022 [69][70][71]. However, most of the earlier investigations conducted at this particular location are based on observation, modeling and forecasting of GPS scintillation indices and belong to the previous solar cycle, i.e., Solar cycle 24.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trailing Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrences at a Low-Latitude Location through Multi-GNSS Slant TEC Depletions during the Strong Geomagnetic Storms in the Ascending Phase of the 25th Solar Cycle

Vankadara,

Jamjareegulgarn,

Seemala

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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The equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) are depleted plasma density regions in the ionosphere occurring during the post-sunset hours, associated with the signal fading and scintillation signatures in the trans-ionospheric radio signals. Severe scintillations may critically affect the performance of dynamic systems relying on global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-based services. Furthermore, the occurrence of scintillations in the equatorial and low latitudes can be triggered or inhibited during space weather events. In the present study, the possible presence of the EPBs during the geomagnetic storm periods under the 25th solar cycle is investigated using the GNSS-derived total electron content (TEC) depletion characteristics at a low-latitude equatorial ionization anomaly location, i.e., KL University, Guntur (Geographic 16°26′N, 80°37′E and dip 22°32′) in India. The detrended TEC with a specific window size is used to capture the characteristic depletion signatures, indicating the possible presence of the EPBs. Moreover, the TEC depletions, amplitude (S4) and phase scintillation (σφ) indices from multi-constellation GNSS signals are probed to verify the vulnerability of the signals towards the scintillation effects over the region. Observations confirm that all GNSS constellations witness TEC depletions between 15:00 UT and 18:00 UT, which is in good agreement with the recorded scintillation indices. We report characteristic depletion depths (22 to 45 TECU) and depletion times (28 to 48 min) across different constellations confirming the triggering of EPBs during the geomagnetic storm event on 23 April 2023. Unlikely, but the other storm events evidently inhibited TEC depletion, confirming suppressed EPBs. The results suggest that TEC depletions from the traditional geodetic GNSS stations could be used to substantiate the EPB characteristics for developing regional as well as global scintillation mitigation strategies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trailing Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrences at a Low-Latitude Location through Multi-GNSS Slant TEC Depletions during the Strong Geomagnetic Storms in the Ascending Phase of the 25th Solar Cycle

Vankadara,

Jamjareegulgarn,

Seemala

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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“…However, their accuracy in shortterm TEC predictions in local areas is relatively low [20]. The statistical models for TEC prediction mainly include auto-correlation (AR) analysis [21], auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) [22], [23], autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) [24], [25], etc. These early statistical models were mostly linear, making it difficult to accurately predict the complex nonlinear changes of TEC [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

TEC Prediction Based on Att-CNN-BiLSTM

Liu,

Wang,

Yuan

et al. 2024

IEEE Access

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Prediction of Total Electron Content (TEC) in the ionosphere is vital to improve the accuracy of satellite positioning, navigation and remote sensing systems. Most existing TEC prediction methods ignored the local variation patterns between various positions within the TEC sequence, resulting in limited prediction accuracy. To address this issue, this paper combined attention techniques, convolutional neural networks (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory networks (BiLSTM) to propose the Att-CNN-BiLSTM model. In the proposed model, CNN is used to extract positional features, BiLSTM is used to extract bidirectional temporal features, and attention technique is used to adaptively weight the features. This paper selected six locations in China, each with a six-year TEC sequence, including three years of high solar activity and three years of low solar activity. The paper first conducted ablation experiments, and the results showed that adding CNN and Attention can effectively improve prediction performance. Then, the proposed model was compared with LSTM and GRU. The experimental results show that compared with LSTM and GRU, the average RMSE of Att-CNN-BiLSTM in six regions decreased by 10.28% and 16.92% in high solar activity years, and by 11.82% and 8.92% in low solar activity years, respectively. The paper also conducted comparative experiments within one week of the magnetic storms, and the results showed that during the magnetic storm period, the RMSE of the proposed model decreased by 35.50% and 37.35% compared to LSTM and GRU. The R 2 s of the proposed model are also higher than those of the comparison models in all cases.

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An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Based Forecasting of Ionospheric Total Electron Content at a low latitude Indian Location

Cited by 2 publications

References 16 publications

Trailing Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrences at a Low-Latitude Location through Multi-GNSS Slant TEC Depletions during the Strong Geomagnetic Storms in the Ascending Phase of the 25th Solar Cycle

Trailing Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrences at a Low-Latitude Location through Multi-GNSS Slant TEC Depletions during the Strong Geomagnetic Storms in the Ascending Phase of the 25th Solar Cycle

TEC Prediction Based on Att-CNN-BiLSTM

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