An Automated System to Quantify Aircraft Encounters with Convectively Induced Turbulence over Europe and the Northeast Atlantic

Meneguz, Elena; Wells, Helen; Turp, Debi

doi:10.1175/jamc-d-15-0194.1

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…New evidence indicates that only 14% of aircraft encounters with turbulence occur in the vicinity of convection (Meneguz et al, 2016). If true, this evidence suggests that the proportion of encounters that are attributable to clear-air turbulence and mountain waves is 86%, which is much higher than previously thought.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change

Williams

2017

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

101

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Anthropogenic climate change is expected to strengthen the vertical wind shears at aircraft cruising altitudes within the atmospheric jet streams. Such a strengthening would increase the prevalence of the shear instabilities that generate clear-air turbulence. Climate modelling studies have indicated that the amount of moderate-or-greater clear-air turbulence on transatlantic flight routes in winter will increase significantly in future as the climate changes. However, the individual responses of light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence have not previously been studied, despite their importance for aircraft operations. Here, we use climate model simulations to analyse the transatlantic wintertime clear-air turbulence response to climate change in five aviation-relevant turbulence strength categories. We find that the probability distributions for an ensemble of 21 clear-air turbulence diagnostics generally gain probability in their right-hand tails when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is doubled. By converting the diagnostics into eddy dissipation rates, we find that the ensembleaverage airspace volume containing light clear-air turbulence increases by 59% (with an intra-ensemble range of 43%-68%), light-to-moderate by 75% (39%-96%), moderate by 94% (37%-118%), moderate-to-severe by 127% (30%-170%), and severe by 149% (36%-188%). These results suggest that the prevalence of transatlantic wintertime clear-air turbulence will increase significantly in all aviation-relevant strength categories as the climate changes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change

Williams

2017

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

101

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“…For further evaluation of the derived EDRs from the 1-Hz aircraft data in this study, the EDR estimates from five methods are examined for selected strong turbulence cases. Strong turbulence events are determined based on the DEVG values, with a threshold of 4.5 m s -1 for moderate-level turbulence (e.g., Truscott, 2000;Gill, 2014;Kim and Chun, 2016;Meneguz et al, 2016;Storer et al, 2019). Therefore, time series of eleven EDR estimates, three EDR1s (U, V, and W), three EDR2s (U, V, and W), three EDR3s (U, V, and W), EDR4, and EDR5 are examined.…”

Section: Results: Case Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of the Derived Energy Dissipation Rate using the 1-Hz Commercial Aircraft Quick Access Recorder (QAR) Data

Kim

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The cube root of the energy dissipation rate (EDR), as a standard reporting metric of atmospheric turbulence, is estimated using 1-Hz quick access recorder data from Korean-based national air carriers with two different types of aircraft [Boeing 737 (B737) and B777], archived for 12 months from January to December 2012. Various EDRs are estimated using zonal, meridional, and derived vertical wind components, and the derived equivalent vertical gust (DEVG). Wind-based EDRs are estimated by (i) second-order structure function (EDR1), (ii) power spectral density (PSD), considering the Kolmogorov’s -5/3 dependence (EDR2), and (iii) maximum-likelihood estimation using the von Kármán spectral model (EDR3). DEVG-based EDRs are obtained mainly by vertical acceleration with different conversions to EDR using (iv) the lognormal mapping technique (EDR4) and (v) the predefined parabolic relationship between the observed EDR and DEVG (EDR5). For the EDR1, second-order structure functions are computed for zonal, meridional, and vertical wind within the defined inertial subrange. For the EDR2 and EDR3, individual PSDs for each wind component are computed using the Fast Fourier Transform over every 2-minute time window. Then, two EDR estimates are computed separately by employing the Kolmogorov-scale slope (EDR2) or prescribed von Kármán wind model (EDR3) within the inertial subrange. The resultant EDR estimates from five different methods follow a lognormal distribution reasonably well, which satisfies the fundamental characteristics of atmospheric turbulence. Statistics (mean and standard deviation) of log-scale EDRs are somewhat different from those found in a previous study using a higher frequency (10 Hz) of in situ aircraft data in the United States, likely due to different sampling rates, aircraft types, and locations. Finally, five EDR estimates capture well the intensity and location of three strong turbulence cases that are relevant to clear-air turbulence (CAT), mountain wave turbulence (MWT), and convectively induced turbulence (CIT), with different characteristics of the observed EDRs: 1) zonal (vertical) wind-based EDRs are stronger in the CAT (CIT) case, while MWT has a peak of EDRs in both zonal and vertical wind-based EDRs, and 2) the CAT and MWT cases occurred by large-scale (synoptic-scale) forcing have more variations in EDRs before and after the incident, while the CIT case triggered by smaller mesoscale convective cell has an isolated peak of EDR.

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“…Data availability. The AMDAR data archived at NOAA at available at https://madis-data.ncep.noaa.gov/madisPublic1/data/archive (Miller et al, 2005; see also https://madis.ncep.noaa.gov/madis_ acars.shtml).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrieval of eddy dissipation rate from derived equivalent vertical gust included in Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR)

et al. 2020

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Abstract. Some of the Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) data include a turbulence metric of the derived equivalent vertical gust (DEVG), in addition to wind and temperature. As the cube root of the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) is the International Civil Aviation Organization standard turbulence reporting metric, we attempt to retrieve the EDR from the DEVG for more reliable and consistent observations of aviation turbulence globally. Using the DEVG in the AMDAR data archived from October 2015 to September 2018 covering a large portion of the Southern Hemisphere and North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans, we convert the DEVG to the EDR using two methods, after conducting quality control procedures to remove suspicious turbulence reports in the DEVG. The first method remaps the DEVG to the EDR using a lognormal mapping scheme, while the second one uses the best-fit curve between the EDR and DEVG developed in a previous study. The DEVG-derived EDRs obtained from the two methods are evaluated against in situ EDR data reported by US-operated carriers. For two specified regions of the Pacific Ocean and Europe, where both the DEVG-derived EDRs and in situ EDRs were available, the DEVG-derived EDRs obtained by the two methods were generally consistent with in situ EDRs, with slightly better statistics obtained by the first method than the second one. This result is encouraging for extending the aviation turbulence data globally with the single preferred EDR metric, which will contribute to the improvement of global aviation turbulence forecasting as well as to the construction of the climatology of upper-level turbulence.

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An Automated System to Quantify Aircraft Encounters with Convectively Induced Turbulence over Europe and the Northeast Atlantic

Cited by 12 publications

References 33 publications

Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change

Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change

Characteristics of the Derived Energy Dissipation Rate using the 1-Hz Commercial Aircraft Quick Access Recorder (QAR) Data

Retrieval of eddy dissipation rate from derived equivalent vertical gust included in Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR)

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