An attempt of a crystal ball for hotels in a gaming destination, Macao

Abstract

Access to this document was granted through an Emerald subscription provided by emerald-srm:451335 [] For AuthorsIf you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please visit www.emeraldinsight.com/authors for more information. About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.comEmerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online products and additional customer resources and services.Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation. AbstractPurpose -The purpose of this paper is to consider the issue of forecasting hotel room rate with data from 2004 onwards and the forecast horizons of 91 observations. Design/methodology/approach -This study employs a set of time series data (91 observations) on average monthly hotel room rates to generate an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models (ARIMA) forecasting model. Findings -Through the employment of 74 percent observations, with 26 percent withhold for evaluation checking, six best models are identified from 50 models under study. The final model reports a high level of predictive accuracy and provides useful insights for hoteliers to form business strategies. Originality/value -This research provides a well-defined model to forecast the room rate of three-star hotels in the city. The research findings provide good ground for strategic management of the industry, in which there is an imbalance between demand and supply of hotel accommodations. In addition, being the first of its kind in one of the largest gaming revenue generation city in the world, this research provides valuable information for further research of its kind in the future.