An Attempt at Simulation of Long Term Slow Slip Events and Seismic Cycle in the Tokai Region

Hirose, Fuyuki; Maeda, Kenji; Takayama, Hajime

doi:10.4294/zisin.62.67

Cited by 5 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(9 reference statements)

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“…Hirose et al . [] set locally large L near the subducting ridges off Tokai and found that large L played a role in suppressing seaward spreading of the slow slips. However, their model was unable to simulate the lack of rupture of the Tokai segment in 1944 because of the limitations of their study area in the later description.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…There are some simulation studies based on the rate‐ and state‐dependent friction (RSF) law [ Dieterich , , ; Ruina , ] that dealt with subducted ridges or seamounts by assigning an additional effective normal stress (σ) and/or characteristic displacement ( L ) (see equation in section 2.1) [e.g., Honkura et al ., ; Hori , ; Hirose et al ., ; Yang et al ., ]. Honkura et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[] and Hirose et al . [] attempted to simulate recurring LSSEs that precede cyclic great earthquakes in the Tokai region by using a three‐dimensional earthquake cycle model based on the simple RSF law with the slip law for state evolution [ Dieterich , , ; Ruina , ; Beeler et al ., ]. Kuroki et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, Hirose et al . [] simulated recurring LSSEs beneath Lake Hamana at intervals of about 30−40 years before the cyclic Tokai earthquakes of M w 8.3−8.4 that occur at intervals of about 300−400 years by introducing heterogeneous friction parameters on the plate interface parallel to the trench axis and without the overshooting method. However, their study area did not include the Tonankai and Nankai segments, which implies an unrealistic assumption of a constant slip at the rate of plate convergence for those segments where the plate boundary is locked actually [ Kobayashi et al ., ; Ozawa and Sagiya , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation of recurring earthquakes along the Nankai trough and their relationship to the Tokai long‐term slow slip events taking into account the effect of locally elevated pore pressure and subducting ridges

Hirose

Maeda

2013

JGR Solid Earth

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[1] Many earthquakes of moment magnitudes greater than 8 associated with subduction of the Philippine Sea plate under Japan have occurred along the Nankai trough with a recurrence interval of 90-150 years. A large-scale rupture of the Tokai fault segment is believed to be imminent because that segment did not rupture during the most recent Tonankai earthquake in 1944. Recurring long-term slow slip events (LSSEs) have recently been observed in the Tokai region. To investigate the current stress state in the Tokai region, we numerically simulated earthquake cycles using a three-dimensional model consisting of triangular cells based on the rate-and state-dependent friction law. Our numerical simulations successfully modeled the Tokai segment not ruptured during the 1944 Tonankai earthquake as well as the recurring LSSEs in the Tokai region. We found that a large characteristic displacement (L) and effective normal stress (σ) in areas of subducted ridges are essential to avoid rupture of the Tokai segment during the 1944 Tonankai earthquake. We also demonstrated that we can reproduce the recurring LSSEs by assigning low values of σ and L to the area beneath Lake Hamana without introducing a velocity-strengthening friction law at high slip rate. Our simulation showed that the amplitudes of the LSSEs increased following the earthquakes that did not rupture the Tokai segment, which suggests that the recent LSSEs may be related to the accumulation of stresses in the Tokai segment because it did not rupture during the 1944 earthquake.Citation: Hirose, F., and K. Maeda (2013), Simulation of recurring earthquakes along the Nankai trough and their relationship to the Tokai long-term slow slip events taking into account the effect of locally elevated pore pressure and subducting ridges,

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation of recurring earthquakes along the Nankai trough and their relationship to the Tokai long‐term slow slip events taking into account the effect of locally elevated pore pressure and subducting ridges

Hirose

Maeda

2013

JGR Solid Earth

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“…A long-term SSE has not yet been observed in the southern Kii Peninsula close to these epicenters. Hirose et al (2009) numerically simulated earthquakes and long-term SSEs along the Nankai Trough using a three-dimensional earthquake cycle model. They pointed out the possibility that one of the long-term SSEs is accelerated and leads to an earthquake.…”

Section: Along-strike Variation Of the Long-term Slow Slip Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A long-term slow slip event from 1996 to 1997 in the Kii Channel, Japan

Kobayashi

2014

Earth Planet Sp

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Repetitive long-term slow slip events beneath the Bungo Channel, southwestern Japan, identified from leveling and sea level data from 1979 to 2008

Kobayashi¹,

Yamamoto

2011

J. Geophys. Res.

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Leveling and sea level data for the period from 1979 to 2008 around the Bungo Channel, southwestern Japan, were investigated to characterize vertical deformation patterns. We found evidence of discrete events that may have occurred beneath the Bungo Channel before the two most recent long‐term slow slip events (SSEs) (1996–1997 and 2003) detected from GPS data. GPS‐derived steady state vertical displacements related to ongoing subduction of the Philippine Sea plate were subtracted from the vertical displacements observed by leveling surveys. The spatial pattern of the residual vertical displacements observed by leveling was similar to that observed by GPS in the periods including recent long‐term SSEs. This suggests that discrete vertical displacements, which might represent long‐term SSEs, have occurred in each of four intervals between leveling surveys before GPS deployment. We calculated differences of sea level between tidal stations near the Bungo Channel after some corrections and then cross‐correlated them with the GPS‐derived vertical displacements of the recent long‐term SSE to estimate the timing of the events. These cross correlations and the discrete vertical displacements derived from leveling suggest that long‐term SSEs may have occurred around 1980, around 1985–1986, and around 1991.

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An Attempt at Simulation of Long Term Slow Slip Events and Seismic Cycle in the Tokai Region

Cited by 5 publications

References 43 publications

Simulation of recurring earthquakes along the Nankai trough and their relationship to the Tokai long‐term slow slip events taking into account the effect of locally elevated pore pressure and subducting ridges

Simulation of recurring earthquakes along the Nankai trough and their relationship to the Tokai long‐term slow slip events taking into account the effect of locally elevated pore pressure and subducting ridges

A long-term slow slip event from 1996 to 1997 in the Kii Channel, Japan

Repetitive long-term slow slip events beneath the Bungo Channel, southwestern Japan, identified from leveling and sea level data from 1979 to 2008

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