An assessment of the wind power dynamics in the European coastal environment

Abstract

The objective of the proposed work is to assess the possible wind power dynamics along the European coastal environment in the context of the very predictable future development of the offshore wind energy extraction. From this perspective, 15 reference points have been selected in the Baltic, Mediterranean and Black seas, representing 5 representative locations for each sea, respectively. The proposed analysis is based on the wind fields provided by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the future time period 2021-2050. These data are processed and analysed considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. In the first RCP scenario (4.5), an enhancement of the greenhouse gas emissions until 2040 is considered followed afterwards by a decline. On the other hand, the second scenario assumes that the greenhouse gas emissions enhancement will continue during the entire 21st century and after. The first scenario is considered as the most realistic approach, while the second as the most pessimistic. Furthermore, in order to complete the picture an analysis of the historical wind data coming from the same RCM for the past 30-year period 1976-2005 is also carried out. In this way, a more comprehensive image of the wind power dynamics in the some relevant locations from the European coastal environment is provided. In order to enlarge the perspective, the analysis of the historical data is also extended for some locations in the North Sea, where wind farms already operate. The results indicate a slight enhancement of the average wind power in most of the locations considered. This enhancement appears to be stronger for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. On the other hand, the maximum wind power is expected to have much higher peaks for RCP8.5 and this especially concerns the western side of the Black Sea. The work is still on going and the analysis will be extended in both space and time covering more coastal locations and the time period until the end of the 21 st century.

Study Concerning the Expected Dynamics of the Wind Energy Resources in the Iberian Nearshore

“…In the work Rusu et al [10], the wind resources dynamics corresponding to locations in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea among other European coastal environments are assessed. A comparison of the results between the 30-year historical period from 1976 to 2005 and those obtained when considering the same 30-year future period from 2021 to 2050 under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario.…”

“…A comparison of the results between the 30-year historical period from 1976 to 2005 and those obtained when considering the same 30-year future period from 2021 to 2050 under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario. Thus, taking into account the relevance of the differences that might exist in the wind resources dynamics along different European nearshore areas, the results of the present study along the Spanish coasts are compared with the ones presented in the aforementioned study [10]. To do so, six locations where various studies assessing the offshore wind resources agree to conclude the fact that the wind presents great energetic resources, are selected.…”

“…The historical values of the wind speed are obtained from the historical time series of wind speed data ERA5 [27], a dataset provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMFW) [35]. The ERA5 dataset is a well-known time series of data considered in many offshore wind studies [10,25,36,37]. Data are available for the period from 1950 to 5 days before the time of consultation.…”

“…Within the use of these natural resources, wind energy is currently the renewable industry that manages to produce electricity at a lower cost, with Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) values located around 0.07 EUR•kWh −1 [9,10]. This is due to the creation of state-of-the-art technologies in conjunction with the great scalability presented by the industry throughout decades of operation and development.…”

“…However, the technological development of the industry opens the possibility of taking advantage of the wind resources present in the offshore areas, where numerous studies conclude that the wind speeds are steadier and stronger when compared with onshore locations. This provides these offshore areas with remarkable energetic resources [8,10,13]. In this way, thanks to the improvement in the construction materials, as well as due to the development of floating platform technologies, it is possible to meet the higher requirements that the marine environment would impose to a wind farm, as well as the creation of projects in locations further from the coast where the seafloor depth is much greater [14][15][16].…”