An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Asphalt Binder Selection in East China Based on the ARIMA Model

Abstract

Temperature is a key factor considered in the selection of asphalt binders for asphalt pavement construction. Currently, the asphalt binders used in some regions’ asphalt pavements are no longer suitable for anticipated climate conditions. The reasonable selection of asphalt binder is an important measure for asphalt pavement to adapt to climate change. This paper focuses on the potential impact of climate change on asphalt binder selection in East China in the future. This study is based on the performance grade (PG) system with SUPERPAVE specifications. It involved collecting meteorological data from 109 meteorological stations in East China from 1960 to 2019 and used the ARIMA prediction model to calculate the maximum and minimum design temperatures for road surfaces over the next 20 years. Based on the forecasted road surface temperature data, the impact of climate change on the choice of asphalt binder in East China was discussed. The research findings indicate that, validated by historical data, using the ARIMA model for future temperature prediction has proven reliability. There are some differences in different regions regarding the change in maximum and minimum pavement design temperatures. In 2019 and 2039, there are three and four high temperature grades in East China; these are PG52, PG58, and PG64 and PG52, PG58, and PG64, PG70 respectively. The dominant high temperature grade in East China will remain PG64, and a total of 23.80% of the regions in East China will experience a one-grade upward shift in high temperature grades. PG-28, PG-22, PG-16, and PG-10 are the four low temperature grades distributed in East China in both 2019 and 2039. Compared with 2019, the proportion of areas with grade PG-16 will increase from 33.86% to 34.89%, and the dominant low temperature grade in East China will remain PG-10 in 2039. In the next 20 years, low-temperature cracking issues related to asphalt pavement in some areas of East China will intensify, but the primary challenge will still be problems caused by high temperatures.