An assessment of the impact of the PSPP on Spanish public bonds

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) on Spanish sovereign debt. Design/methodology/approach The authors assess the impact of the PSPP on Spanish Government bonds from two different transmission channels (the signalling and the portfolio substitution) with two effects for each of them (the announcement and the expectation effects for the former and the stock and the rebalancing effects for the latter). The empirical study has been undertaken with event study methodology, controlled by macroeconomic variables, panel data and cross-sectional regression analyses. Findings The results show that both the ECB’s purchases under the PSPP and the announcements reduced Spanish Government bond yields. Compared to previous literature the Spanish Government bond yields reductions are larger than those for other countries. Research limitations/implications The authors’ approach to the impact of investors’ expectations is interesting, although they cannot draw evidence on this issue due to the lack of data. Practical implications From an economic perspective, the ECB can change economic agents’ expectations without actually carrying out any programme, only by announcing such a programme. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature examining the PSPP from different transmission channels in Spain, taking into account the announcements, the expectations, the purchases and the variation in debt holdings relating to the PSPP from the beginning of the programme until 2020. Due to the large degree of heterogeneity across euro area countries, the results in this paper should improve our understanding of the relative differences in the impact of the PSPP and, thus, be of interest to academics and policymakers.