An assessment of the impact of 1.5 versus 2 and 2.5°C global temperature increase on flooding in Jamaica: a case study from the Hope watershed

Mandal, Arpita; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Campbell, Jayaka D.; Taylor, Michael A.; Watson, Shavel; Clarke, Leonardo A.; Smith, David M.; Darsan, Junior; Wilson, Matthew

doi:10.1098/rsta.2021.0141

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Other studies focus on identifying specific risks associated with Jamaica's hydroclimatic settings and corresponding changes. The literature points out two common hazards: floods and landslides, with flooding being the most common disaster in Jamaica [25].…”

Section: Flooding Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Big Data, Small Island: Earth Observations for Improving Flood and Landslide Risk Assessment in Jamaica

et al. 2023

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The Caribbean region is highly vulnerable to multiple hazards. Resultant impacts may be derived from single or multiple cascading risks caused by hydrological-meteorological, seismic, geologic, or anthropological triggers, disturbances, or events. Studies suggest that event records and data related to hazards, risk, damage, and loss are limited in this region. National Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) planning and response require data of sufficient quantity and quality to generate actionable information, statistical inferences, and insights to guide continual policy improvements for effective DRR, national preparedness, and response in both time and space. To address this knowledge gap, we review the current state of knowledge, data, models, and tools, identifying potential opportunities, capacity needs, and long-term benefits for integrating Earth Observation (EO) understanding, data, models, and tools to further enhance and strengthen the national DRR framework using two common disasters in Jamaica: floods and landslides. This review serves as an analysis of the current state of DRR management and assess future opportunities. Equally, to illustrate and guide other United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) priority countries in the Pacific region, known as Small Island Developing States (SIDS), to grapple with threats of multiple and compounding hazards in the face of increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events, and climate change impact.

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Section: Flooding Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Big Data, Small Island: Earth Observations for Improving Flood and Landslide Risk Assessment in Jamaica

et al. 2023

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“…Moreover, the Caribbean Sea levels are projected to rise faster than the global average and are expected to be 1.4 m higher by 2100 in a high emission scenario, which will likely increase coastal flood risk significantly [20]. In addition, the city's layout, with a steep slope from the inner city to the coast, makes it prone to flash flooding during heavy rainfall events [21].…”

Section: History Of Flooding In Jamaica and Kingston: Hazards And Imp...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Small Island City Flood Risk Assessment: The Case of Kingston, Jamaica

Rivosecchi,

Singh

2023

Water

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Jamaica has had over 200 floods in the past 50 years, causing significant human and economic losses. Kingston has often caused the most damage due to its high population density and capital exposure. Kingston is crucial to the country’s socio-economic stability, and climate change is increasing flood risk, but a local-scale assessment of its flood risk is unavailable. This study fills this gap in the literature by using two models of the integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (inVEST) suite to qualitatively assess Kingston metropolitan pluvial and coastal flood risk. Key locations like Kingston Container Terminal and downtown Kingston are at high coastal flood risk, according to the results. The study also shows that sea level rise (117%) and habitat loss (104%) will increase the highly exposed area. Instead of hard-engineering coastal protection, this study suggests investing in nature-based and ecoengineering solutions to improve coastal resilience and ecosystem services. The urban flood assessment finds downtown, particularly the Mountview and Minor catchments, at high risk due to poor runoff retention and high population density. To fully address downtown pluvial flood risk, structural social reforms are needed. To reduce short-term flood risk, local authorities should consider targeted adaptation measures. These may include maintaining the drainage gully system and reducing surface runoff in uphill downtown areas. Thus, this study seeks to inform Kingston urban planners about risk distribution and suggest adaptation measures to improve flood resilience.

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“…Jamaica being a SIDS is particularly vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change. Over the years, the island has experienced several severe storms, posing a significant threat to its infrastructure, human life, and economic development [3][4][5][6]. To better understand and identify associated risks, such as floods or droughts in Jamaica, it is crucial to consider rainfall persistence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Rainfall Variability in Jamaica Using CHIRPS: Techniques and Measures for Persistence, Long and Short-Term Trends

Cullen

Suhili

2023

Geographies

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Jamaica, as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), is highly vulnerable to weather extremes. As precipitation persistence is a critical factor in determining the susceptibility of an area to risks, this work assesses the spatial and temporal variations of rainfall persistence in Jamaica from 1981 to 2020, using satellite-based information. The Hurst exponent (H) and the serial correlation coefficient (SCC) are used to evaluate the long-term persistence of precipitation and the Persistence Threshold (PT) concept is introduced to provide a description of rainfall characteristics over short periods, specifically, the number of consecutive days with precipitation above or below a set threshold value. The PT method is a novel concept that expands upon the Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) and Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) methods that only consider a threshold of 1 mm. Results show notable temporal and spatial variations in persistence over the decades, with an overall increasing trend in high precipitation persistence and a decreasing trend in low precipitation persistence. Geographically, the northern mountainous area of Jamaica received the most persistent rainfall over the study period with an observed increase in extreme rainfall events. The excess rainfall of the 2001–2010 decade is remarkable in this study, coinciding with the global unprecedented climate extremes during this time. We conclude that the data used in this study is viable for understanding and modeling rainfall trends in SIDS like Jamaica, and the derived PT method is a useful tool for short-term rainfall trends, but it is just one step toward determining flood or drought risk. Further research will focus on developing drought and flood indices.

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An assessment of the impact of 1.5 versus 2 and 2.5°C global temperature increase on flooding in Jamaica: a case study from the Hope watershed

Cited by 4 publications

References 25 publications

Big Data, Small Island: Earth Observations for Improving Flood and Landslide Risk Assessment in Jamaica

Big Data, Small Island: Earth Observations for Improving Flood and Landslide Risk Assessment in Jamaica

Small Island City Flood Risk Assessment: The Case of Kingston, Jamaica

Assessing Rainfall Variability in Jamaica Using CHIRPS: Techniques and Measures for Persistence, Long and Short-Term Trends

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