An assessment of snow-glacier melt runoff under climate change scenarios in the Himalayan basin

Singh, Vishal; Jain, Sanjay K.; Goyal, Manish Kumar

doi:10.1007/s00477-021-01987-1

Cited by 18 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) was found to be 0.85 and 0.87 respectively for calibration and validation, the NSE equalled to 0.85 in both runs, and Percent bias was -2.5 and -5.4 respectively, for those runs. Based on the values of R 2 , NSE and PBIAS from above table and performance rating criteria provided by (Moriasi et al, 2007), the model showed a reliable estimate even in daily time step for both calibration and validation as comparable to other studies (Singh et al, 2021a). The p-factor for both calibration and validation period were found to be 0.84, whereas the r-factor for those periods were 0.28 and 0.38 respectively, both within a quite good acceptable range (Singh et al, 2021a;Jain et al, 2017).…”

Section: **Insert Table 1 Here**supporting

confidence: 77%

“…Nepal has realised as a national topmost and highly prioritised issue of water resources for the country prosperity and development (Chhetri et al, 2020;Sharma and Shakya, 2006). But the hydrology of the rivers in Himalayan basin is predicted to be more vulnerable because of the seasonal, latitudinal and altitudinal shifting of the freezing line due to the effects of the climate change (Singh et al, 2021a;Jones, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(Pradhanang et al, 2011). The rising of atmospheric temperature is the leading cause of the declining the quantity of snowfall in the Himalayan regions which further result in the rapid melting of snow-glaciers and reduces the snow cover durations (Singh et al, 2021a(Singh et al, , 2021bSingh and Bengtson, 2004). The reduction of the snow-to-rain ratio causes wetter monsoon and drier lean flow seasons which has a very adverse effect on the runoff river type hydropower potential of the mountain rivers (Singh et al, 2021b;Agrawala et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of Historical and Future Water Availability in Himalayan Tamor River Basin Nepal Utilizing CMIP5 CNRM Climate Model Experiments

Pokhral

Singh

Mishra

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In this study, the assessment of water availability under climate changing environment has been done in the Himalayan Tamor River Basin, Nepal using physically based, spatially distributed, a continuous model 'Soil and Water Assessment Tool' (SWAT). The hydrological simulation and projection have been performed in the historical (1996-2007) and future times (e.g. 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s). The climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of Tamor river basin has been performed utilizing the CMIP5 CNRM climate model datasets (with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The model calibration and parameterization uncertainty evaluation in the simulated and projected flows were done in SWATCUP using SUFI2 algorithm. The results obtained from the model calibration (1996-2004) and validation (2005-2007) showed a reliable estimate of daily streamflow for calibration period (R2 = 0.85, NSE =0.85 and PBIAS=-2.5) and validation period (R2 =0.87, NSE =0.85 and PBIAS=-5.4). The average annual water yield at the main outlet of the basin is computed as 1511.13 mm, and the total annual quantity is recorded as 6.25 BCM. The average annual precipitation over the seleced river basin is projected to be increased in all scenarios. The stations at higher altitude show more temperature rise than those at a lower elevation and thus there would be minimal snowfall has been projected in the basin by 2100 AD under both scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). It is expected that the flow pattern in the future would be similar to the baseline pattern under all scenarios. The baseflow will be dramatically increased in all scenarios, but the lowest flow month would be shifted from March to February. Since the base flow during lean months would be increased in future as projected by all scenarios, there would not be adverse impacts on higher percentile flows. This study would be useful for the assessment of the possibility of storage type or run-off-river type hydro-project in the basin in terms of water availability.

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confidence: 77%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of Historical and Future Water Availability in Himalayan Tamor River Basin Nepal Utilizing CMIP5 CNRM Climate Model Experiments

Pokhral

Singh

Mishra

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…In many similar studies of high-altitude areas, river runoff is mainly fed by glacier meltwater, which is detected to increase due to increasing glacier melt [11,60,61]. The Pamir is a typical representative of the high-altitude headwater area.…”

Section: Runoff Characteristics Of High-altitude Headwatersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the response of meltwater to climate change varies dramatically in different geographic environments. In the Himalayas, glaciers are shrinking due to climate warming, but river runoff is increasing, and high and low altitudes are more sensitive to climate change than moderate elevation areas [11]. The rapid melting of glaciers has also been observed in Peru, causing a complex impact on upstream hydrology, and reveals a declining contribution of meltwater to the watershed outflows [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Long-Term River Discharge and Its Changes in Ungauged Watersheds in Pamir Plateau

et al. 2021

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The Pamir Plateau is an extremely important water resource area for over 60 million people in Central Asia. With the increasingly significant response of water resources to climate change, timely hydrological predictions for the future supply are necessary. In the plateau, accessing and monitoring the glaciers and their melt outflow are challenging due to the harsh geographic environments. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) combined with remote sensing technologies offer great potential for providing information to improve water resources management and decision-making. In this study, we integrated UAV and satellite remote sensing data, and applied a water balance model to estimate monthly and annual river discharges for the ten river sections in the Eastern Pamir Plateau, China from 1999 to 2020. We found that the glacier area in the controlled basins of these sections has decreased by approximately 63% from 1999 to 2020. Basins with smaller glacier areas are more sensitive to climate change. The ten river sections are characterized by decreasing trends in monthly river discharge, with an average reduction of −21.05%. The annual variation of total runoff and glacial meltwater discharge is consistent with the monthly variation of discharge, and the average discharge from glacier meltwater accounts for 83% of the total runoff. We conclude that the overall decreasing trend of discharge is closely related to the recession of glaciers. Under the background of climate warming in the region, glaciers are no longer sufficient to support the increase in river discharge, which has passed its peak value and shows a decreasing trend.

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Glacier changes and their impacts on the melt runoff in high and moderate elevation ranges of Himalayan Upper Ganges Basin

Singh

Jain

Nagale

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

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The rise in temperatures over the Himalayan regions due to climate change have shown profound effects on the seasonality and long-term availability of snow melt runoff and glacier melt runoff. As per the sixth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Himalayan glaciers are retreating and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is altering. This study analyses the effect of snow-glacier changes on the melt runoff (1986-2020) over the Upper Ganga river basin (up to Rishikesh) using a fully distributed model namely, Spatial Process in Hydrology (SPHY), which governs by Temperature Index Model approach with varying degree-day factors. This study performs the two-step calibration approach for model parameterization and to evaluate the snow and glacier melt runoff utilizing the observed discharge and real time satellite datasets. The SPHY derived snow cover was compared with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived snow covers. Results show that the SPHY modelled fractional snow covers found comparable to MODIS derived snow covers ($70%-90% correlation). The R 2 based comparison of SPHY modelled runoff (Q) and observed Q at two gauges namely, Maneri ($0.85) and Rishikesh ($0.80) found reasonable. For the assessment of glacier changes and corresponding melt runoff, temporal glacier maps (i.e., for

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An assessment of snow-glacier melt runoff under climate change scenarios in the Himalayan basin

Cited by 18 publications

References 77 publications

Assessment of Historical and Future Water Availability in Himalayan Tamor River Basin Nepal Utilizing CMIP5 CNRM Climate Model Experiments

Assessment of Historical and Future Water Availability in Himalayan Tamor River Basin Nepal Utilizing CMIP5 CNRM Climate Model Experiments

Estimation of Long-Term River Discharge and Its Changes in Ungauged Watersheds in Pamir Plateau

Glacier changes and their impacts on the melt runoff in high and moderate elevation ranges of Himalayan Upper Ganges Basin

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