An Assessment of Re-Directing Breeding Waterfowl Conservation Relative to Predictions of Climate Change

Abstract

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has a long history of habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States that has focused on migratory birds, particularly waterfowl. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.1 million hectares of critical breeding waterfowl habitat. Results of recent predicted future climate scenarios are being used to suggest that waterfowl conservation be shifted away from currently important areas in the western and central portions of the U.S. PPR eastward, to locations where wetland and climate models suggest may become more conducive for providing wetland habitat for breeding ducks in the future. We used 24 years of breeding waterfowl and wetland monitoring data collected by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System in the PPR of North and South Dakota and northeast Montana, along with land value and restoration cost data to conduct an economic assessment of the biological risk of refocusing waterfowl conservation efforts eastward due to recent projections of climate change. We considered the immediate risk of the loss of existing wetland and grassland resources in the western portion of the U.S. PPR, their current carrying capacity and production potential, the financial cost of protection vs. restoration relative to current conservation priorities, and the uncertainty of climate change effects on waterfowl habitat distribution. Because unprotected wetland and grassland habitats exist in the western and central portions of the PPR that are important for maintaining current waterfowl carrying capacity and productivity, and climate change effects are highly uncertain, maintaining the current focus of habitat protection appears to be the most cost effective approach for waterfowl habitat conservation efforts. Additionally, continued intensive monitoring activities designed to detect changing waterfowl populations and upland and wetland habitat as they relate to anthropogenic impacts (e.g., pattern tile drainage, grassland conversion) and climatic changes (e.g., wetland hydro-period), should provide more precise results to inform and adapt management and conservation activities accordingly should spatial and temporal changes in wet-dry cycles occur in the future.

Evidence for 20th century climate warming and wetland drying in the North American Prairie Pothole Region

“…So gains in the east could only compensate for biological productivity declines in the west if large numbers of drained wetlands were restored and watersheds replanted with grassland (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1998; Zedler 2003). Until and even after such a trend toward restoration is realized, grassland and wetland conservation in the Dakotas is important (Loesch et al 2012). Additionally, Wright and Wimberly (2013) indicates that land use conversion of grasslands and wetlands to corn–soybean agriculture in the eastern Dakotas is increasing, further compounding the effects of climate change on prairie wetland ecosystems.…”

Climate Change Effects on Prairie Pothole Wetlands: Findings from a Twenty-five Year Numerical Modeling Project

“…The main message of Johnson et al (2005) based on experiments using WETSIM 3 was that these results should be taken into account as future conservation plans are developed to slow wetland drainage and to restore formerly drained wetlands and grassland as a means of adapting to climate change. Conservation groups have argued that the current status quo of directing resources to the western PPR should be maintained because of future climate uncertainties and the high cost of wetland restoration in the eastern PPR (Loesch et al 2012).…”

Kongresse – Symposien – Seminare – Messen

“…Population goals and habitat objectives were established to maintain habitat for breeding pairs and the current productivity of the landscape (Ringelman 2005, Government Accounting Office 2007). Spatially explicit decision support tools (Reynolds et al 1996, Niemuth et al 2005, Stephens et al 2008, Loesch et al 2012) have been used effectively to target and prioritize resources for protection. New stressors such as energy development in the PPR that negatively affect the use of wetland resources have ramifications to breeding waterfowl populations (i.e., potential displacement to lower quality wetland habitat) and their conservation and management.…”

“…Given that breeding duck pairs do not completely avoid wetlands in and adjacent to wind energy developments and resource benefits remain, albeit at reduced levels, the grassland and wetland protection prioritization criteria used by conservation partners in the PPR (Ringelman 2005) could be adjusted to account for avoidance using various scenarios of acceptable impact. For example, the wind sites used in our study are in high priority conservation locations (Ringelman 2005, Loesch et al 2012). After accounting for effects of duck displacement by wind development, their priority was not reduced for either site.…”