An Assessment of Indonesia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Siagian, Ucok W.R.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Yuwono, Bintang; Boer, Rizaldi; Immanuel, Gito; Masui, Toshihiko

doi:10.1007/978-981-10-3869-3_8

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Several international studies focusing on NDCs and their economic impact have been assessed in the form of either scientific papers, journals, or reports [7,[11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Some of these assessments have proposed alternative scenarios to attain either the 2°C or the 1.5°C goals, as the future emissions level targeted by the NDCs results in a temperature rise larger than 2°C.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A study conducted to estimate the global and regional abatement costs of NDCs found that the abatement costs of achieving 2030 emission levels consistent with 2°C pathways would be at least three times higher than the NDC and for the 1.5°C pathways five to six times higher [20]. According to a study in Indonesia, the emission reduction target of its NDC can be achieved at an economic cost of less than 1% of the gross domestic product (GDP), thus requiring mitigation actions that would not harm the economic development [14]. In most cases, lowering the cost of GHG emission reductions requires transformative changes in the economic structure and energy systems, such as the case of Korea [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of different GHG reduction scenarios on the economy and social welfare of Thailand using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

2019

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Background: The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Thailand intends to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20 to 25% from the projected business as usual level by 2030 with the deployment of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency improvement measures in both the supply and demand sectors. However, in order to contribute towards meeting the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement to stay well below 2°C, ambitious mitigation efforts beyond 2030 are needed. As such, it is necessary to assess the effects of imposing more stringent long-term GHG reduction targets in Thailand beyond the NDC commitment. Methods: This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of limiting the GHG emissions by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model on Thailand's economy during 2010 to 2050. Besides the business as usual (BAU) scenario, this study assesses the macroeconomic effects of ten low to medium GHG mitigation scenarios under varying GHG reduction targets of 20 to 50%. In addition, this study also assesses three different peak emission scenarios, each targeting a GHG reduction of up to 90% by 2050, to analyze the feasibility of zero GHG emissions in Thailand to pursue efforts to hold the global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as considered in the Paris Agreement. Results: According to the BAU scenario, the GHG emissions from the electricity, industry, and transport sectors would remain the most prominent throughout the planning period. The modeling results indicate that the medium to peak emission reduction scenarios could result in a serious GDP loss compared to the BAU scenario, and therefore, the attainment of such mitigation targets could be very challenging for Thailand. Results suggest that the development and deployment of energy-efficient and renewable energy-based technologies would play a significant role not only in minimizing the GHG emissions but also for overcoming the macroeconomic loss and lowering the price of GHG emissions. Conclusions: The results reveal that without a transformative change in the economic structure and energy system of Thailand, the country would have to face enormous cost in reducing its GHG emissions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of different GHG reduction scenarios on the economy and social welfare of Thailand using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

2019

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Macroeconomic impacts and co-benefits of deep-decarbonization in Thailand

Chaichaloempreecha,

Pradhan,

Rajbhandari

et al. 2024

Energ. Ecol. Environ.

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The updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2022 of Thailand includes an aggressive GHG emission reduction target of 40% in 2030 from its baseline emissions. However, the macroeconomic impacts and co-benefits associated with reducing GHG emissions are not addressed. This study analyzes the macroeconomic implications and co-benefits of GHG emission reduction in Thailand to achieve the NDC and net zero emission (NZE) targets by 2050 using the AIM/Hub-Thailand model. This paper provides co-benefits for Thailand on ambitious long-term GHG emission reduction targets. Considering the co-benefit analysis in the policy documents will provide holistic insights on the positive impacts of GHG mitigation. Results show that Thailand would have to bear a GDP loss of 7.7% in 2050 compared to the BAU level if the net zero emissions need to be achieved. Fuel switching from fossil fuel to electricity in the demand side and improvement of technologies in the power sector also reduces air pollutant emissions. The increasing dependence on domestic energy supply in the NZE scenario will make the country less vulnerable to the fluctuating prices in the international energy market. In terms of trade-offs, the land use for sustainable biomass in both the NDC and NZE scenarios will be larger than in the BAU scenario. Results show better land use for biomass production and higher yields in agricultural production. Moreover, the achievement of NZE pathway will require effective usage of land area and better use of energy resources, thereby making the country more energy secure.

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