An Assessment of Civil Nuclear ‘Enabling’ and ‘Amelioration’ Factors for EROI Analysis

Abstract

Nuclear fission is a primary energy source that may be important to future efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The energy return on investment (EROI) of any energy source is important because aggregate global EROI must be maintained at a minimum level to support complex global systems. Previous studies considering nuclear EROI have emphasised energy investments linked to ‘enabling’ factors (upstream activities that enable the operation of nuclear technology such as fuel enrichment), have attracted controversy, and challenges also persist regarding system boundary definition. This study advocates that improved consideration of ‘amelioration’ factors (downstream activities that remediate nuclear externalities such as decommissioning), is an important task for calculating a realistic nuclear EROI. Components of the ‘nuclear system’ were analysed and energy investment for five representative ‘amelioration’ factors calculated. These ‘first approximation’ calculations made numerous assumptions, exclusions, and simplifications, but accounted for a greater level of detail than had previously been attempted. The amelioration energy costs were found to be approximately 1.5–2 orders of magnitude lower than representative ‘enabling’ costs. Future refinement of the ‘amelioration’ factors may indicate that they are of greater significance, and may also have characteristics making them systemically significant, notably in terms of timing in relation to future global EROI declines.

An Analysis of the Potential for the Formation of ‘Nodes of Persisting Complexity’

“…Modern, globalised civilisation is characterised by extreme levels of complexity, which has the potential to introduce additional risks. For example, nuclear technology [32] in the context of its development and the externalities (highly hazardous redundant facilities and long-lived waste that require highly controlled management) that it generates demonstrates the particular risk of such high-technology solutions in that they beget and 'lock in' the need for further complexity through the generation of egregious externalities. Any future reduction or loss of supporting complexity could result in widespread harm in the future if the persistent hazard that has been generated ceases to be manageable.…”