An assessment of actual evapotranspiration and soil water deficit in agricultural regions in Europe

Abstract

Changes in agricultural droughts were investigated using simulations of soil water deficit (SWD) and actual evapotranspiration (ET A ) from a distributed semi-empirical soil water balance model -swbEWA. At European scale, both SWD and ET A did not change significantly between 1951 and 2011. However, significant increases in SWD were found in southern Europe, except in western Turkey, whereas in northern Europe changes in SWD remain small. ET A increased significantly as a joint response to increased air temperature and precipitation in northern Europe.Using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and the Pearson correlation coefficients (R Pearson ), we showed that large-scale agricultural droughts are influenced by the recurrence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and by the atmospheric blocking. Atmospheric blocking in different months throughout the year and extreme NAO index (mainly in winter months) contribute to the severity of agricultural droughts. During a negative phase of NAO, storms over the North Atlantic and Europe are less frequent and as a consequence dry weather in Europe is observed. Positive NAO influences agricultural drought in Europe by shifting storms tracks from the North Atlantic onto European continent to more northerly paths, which in turn decreases the amount of precipitation over central Europe.Large SWDs are mainly influenced by atmospheric blocking. Notably, winter blocking increases severity of agricultural droughts in southwestern Europe, while summer blocking influences agricultural droughts in southeastern Europe. Notwithstanding, the first three EOFs contribute to less than 40% of the total spatial variability of SWD. This shows that agricultural droughts are complex phenomena that can be only partly explained by extreme NAO or by intensive atmospheric blocking.

High‐resolution projections of evapotranspiration and water availability for Europe under climate change

“…Kurnik et al . () estimate soil water deficits for agricultural regions in Europe based on actual evapotranspiration. ET0 and AET0 metrics have become an indispensable indicator and measure of climate driven changes to water balance.…”

“…In Europe, Nistor et al (2016), Nistor et al (2017a;2017b) and Ambas and Baltas (2012) document historical increases of evapotranspiration, as well as potential climate change impacts. Kurnik et al (2015) estimate soil water deficits for agricultural regions in Europe based on actual evapotranspiration. ET0 and AET0 metrics have become an indispensable indicator and measure of climate driven changes to water balance.…”

Climate change impact on crop evapotranspiration in Turkey during the 21st Century

“…The evapotranspiration of the main agricultural regions of Europe was computed by Kurnik et al . () based on the Soil Water Balance European Water Accounting model. Ambas and Baltas () assessed the evapotranspiration‐sensitive parameter using specific methods in the prefecture of Florina, western Macedonia.…”

“…Dezsi et al (2018) carried out water availability at the spatial scale for Europe, which serves in the planning of agricultural systems, water-consumption strategies and technical improvements for irrigation in different regions of the continent. The evapotranspiration of the main agricultural regions of Europe was computed by Kurnik et al (2014) based on the Soil Water Balance European Water Accounting model. Ambas and Baltas (2012) assessed the evapotranspiration-sensitive parameter using specific methods in the prefecture of Florina, western Macedonia.…”

Crop evapotranspiration assessment under climate change in the Pannonian basin during 1991–2050

“…Thus, the assessment of crop evapotranspiration (ET c ) becomes a significant indicator that is commonly used in regional water balance and irrigation surveys. Kurnik et al (2014), in their study of water deficit in agricultural regions of Europe, created a soil water balance model that included simulations of soil water deficit and actual evapotranspiration. The assessment of sensitive parameters using different evapotranspiration methods was attempted by Ambas and Baltas (2012) in the Prefecture of Florina, Western Macedonia.…”