An Assessment Methodology for the Evaluation of the Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Italian Housing Market Demand

Abstract

Due to the forced changes that the COVID-19 pandemic has had in many aspects of ordinary life (working, social life, training and learning in schools etc.), the characteristics of domestic spaces have significantly modified buying, selling and renting decisions in the real estate market. The aim of this research was to structure a methodology, articulated into four steps, to assess the variation that has occurred in residential market demand as a result of COVID-19 anti-contagion measures, with regard to six metropolitan Italian cities. We considered two samples of properties for each city, the first referencing the pre-COVID-19 pandemic spread and the second collected in the current situation. Consequently, we were able to determine variations in residential market appreciations through the application of a regressive econometric technique. The obtained results highlighted the relevance assumed by indoor acoustic and thermal comfort property factors, compared with the pre-COVID-19 condition. The proposed methodology could be useful to support the public and private entities involved in urban investment decision-making processes, allowing us to identify the most appreciated factors of the residential real estate market demand, in order to improve the conditions of existing and future assets and reduce the related risk levels.

Prophylactic Architecture: Formulating the Concept of Pandemic-Resilient Homes

“…Some studies conducted in Italy in October 2020 determined users' preferences regarding rooms in their homes; the results indicated a private garden, parking, kitchen or living space, balcony, living room, and two or more bathrooms, arranged from the top, with percentages ranging from 58% to 45%. These preferences reveal the advent of previously secondary spaces such as the balcony and the private garden [112]. Although the results of these surveys are likely to be generalized, there may be regional differences according to the standard of living and other considerations, but in general the emergence of spaces that were previously secondary, if not irrelevant, is observed, and that what we considered a luxury in the past is now a basic requirement.…”

“…The COVID-19crisis has had a shocking impact on the housing real estate markets across the world due to the upheaval in the construction industry [112,113] and its impact on tenants, landlords and businesses. Most governments around the world have adopted some changes in their real estate policies to mitigate those negative effects as an attempt to reduce the burden on renters and owners in the housing sector.…”

“…These criteria, based on users' preferences monitored in several studies, include adequate daylight access and natural ventilation combined with thermal comfort for all household spaces, so there will be a focus on the location and size of windows, the surrounding environment and landscape, as well as the larger home size provided with new emerging spaces such as workspaces, balconies, outdoor living spaces, and private gardens. That is in addition to the preferences for acoustic comfort as a result of the changing dynamics of work and social life [57,112,118].…”

Tempo-Spatial Modelling of the Spread of COVID-19 in Urban Spaces

“…We have treated the size of the houses as a determining characteristic and its main use, trying to differentiate between the tourist use as an essential factor for the potential spread of the COVID-19 disease, given the mobility of people (tourists of various origins) that this causes. However, we are aware that there are many other aspects that can be treated and are highlighted in the scientific literature [ 53 , 54 , 55 , 56 , 57 ].…”

The Economic Evaluation of Urban Ecosystem Services into Policy-Making Processes

“…The multi-scalar nature of the information frame on which to set up the integrated planning-evaluation of the city can vary according to the type of evaluation problem to be solved; the analysis to be carried out on the territory (aggregate and/or explicit); and, last but not least, the category and number of stakeholders (public and/or private) involved in the project initiative. The combination of these factors (type of evaluation problem, territorial analysis and stakeholders involved) defines the degree of detail and accuracy of the evaluation, as well as the level of articulation of the information system supporting the resolution of the evaluation and project case of interest in ecosystemic perspective, also in response to sudden breakdown events [52,53].…”