Abstract. There are numerous influencing factors of the risk consequences
of dam break. The scientific and reasonable index system and its weight
distribution are some of the key elements for comprehensive evaluation of the
dam break risk. Taking into consideration 20 factors, including hazards,
exposure and vulnerability, the evaluation index system of the
consequences of dam break risk is constructed. Using the Statistical
Cloud Model (SCM)
to improve the entropy method, we establish the weight
calculation model of the influencing factors of dam break risk
consequences. The results shows that the top five factors with the highest
weight are risk population, flood intensity, alert time, risk understanding
and distance from the dam. Compared to traditional algebraic weight
calculation methods, the result is basically consistent with the algebraic
weight distribution, and increases the range by 2.03 times, supporting a more
scientific basis for recognizing and evaluating dam break risk
consequences.