An approach for using risk assessment in risk-informed decisions on plant-specific changes to the licensing basis

Caruso, Mark; Cheok, Michael C.; Cunningham, Mark A.; Holahan, Gary M.; King, Thomas; Parry, Gareth; Ramey-Smith, A.; Rubin, Mark; Thadani, A.C.

doi:10.1016/s0951-8320(98)00038-6

Cited by 46 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…In a world that has no uncertainties but only known, quantifiable risks, this would indeed be a valid assumption; however, we do not live in such a world. In practice, this means that failure probabilities often include experts' quantified estimates of certain probabilities, and these estimates are unavoidably subjective (Caruso et al 1999). Often some phenomena are excluded from the analysis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Should Probabilistic Design Replace Safety Factors?

Doorn

Hansson

2010

Philos. Technol.

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Safety is a concern in almost all branches of engineering. Whereas safety was traditionally introduced by applying safety factors or margins to the calculated maximum load, this approach is increasingly replaced with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as a tool for dimensioning safety measures. In this paper, the two approaches are compared in terms of what they aim at and what they can, in fact, achieve. The outcome of this comparison suggests that the two approaches should be seen as complementary rather than mutually exclusive. PRA is particularly useful for priority setting and for the effect evaluation of safety measures; however, in most applications, uncertainties prevent PRA from providing an objective probability of failure or value of damage. Safety factors are indispensible for dealing with dangers that cannot be assigned meaningful probabilities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Should Probabilistic Design Replace Safety Factors?

Doorn

Hansson

2010

Philos. Technol.

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“…In practice, failure probabilities of technological systems usually include experts' estimates that are unavoidably subjective (Caruso et al 1999). According to this view, these probabilities are more than relative indicators; they are (good estimates of) objective frequencies.…”

Section: Critical Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Handbook of Ethics, Values, and Technological Design

Hoven

Vermaas²,

Poel³

2015

142

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“…Whether it is possible, or even makes sense, to try to capture completeness uncertainty formally, however, is open to question, and will not be addressed here. '' A variety of examples of each of the uncertainty categories are given in Caruso et al (1999).…”

Section: Required Total System Performance Sets Separation Minimummentioning

confidence: 99%

Air Traffic Control Separation Minima: Part 1 – The Current Stasis

Brooker

2011

J. Navigation

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Current strategic plans for air traffic management (ATM) envisage a transition from radar control to a trajectory-based system. The future ATM concepts are very different in a great number of aspects from the present system. The focus here is on the design of safe systems, in particular the appropriate air traffic control (ATC) separation minima. This Part 1 sketches the historical origins of ATC separation minima and then analyses the safety thinking behind current minima and the issues involved in risk modelling. Why have the critical minima largely remained unchanged for several decades -stasis ? Part 2 then addresses key safety issues in the transition to the new ATM concept.' Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world. ' Archimedes.K E Y W O R D S 1. ATM.2. Separation minima. 3. Collision risk.

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An approach for using risk assessment in risk-informed decisions on plant-specific changes to the licensing basis

Cited by 46 publications

References 3 publications

Should Probabilistic Design Replace Safety Factors?

Should Probabilistic Design Replace Safety Factors?

Handbook of Ethics, Values, and Technological Design

Air Traffic Control Separation Minima: Part 1 – The Current Stasis

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