An approach for constructing spatially paired pseudo repeat-sales housing price indices in China

Abstract

Constructing a reliable housing price index is crucial for accurately reflecting housing price dynamics and enhancing transparency in the housing market. However, existing methods for constructing housing price indices often confront many challenges, such as omitted variable issues in the hedonic model and constrained samples used in the repeat-sales model. To address these challenges, this study identifies a spatially paired relationship between complexes and develops a Spatially Paired Pseudo Repeat-Sales model to construct the housing price index. This approach offers two significant advantages: first, it enlarges the sample size used in the repeat-sales model at least 1.8 times; second, it effectively estimates the effects of spatial dependency and physical housing factors on prices while mitigating the impacts of unobservable factors through differentiation. The findings of this paper suggest that using the spatially paired pseudo repeat-sales model can significantly improve the estimation of housing price volatility, by approximately 13%. Moreover, the constructed housing price index model demonstrates significant robustness, even when the spatial weight settings are altered. This research provides convincing evidence of improved housing market transparency for stakeholders, including governments, institutional developers, and individual investors. Additionally, the constructed model can inform other similar research in housing price index construction by providing a spatially pairing perspective on housing complexes.