An analytical platform for cumulative impact assessment based on multiple futures: The impact of petroleum drilling and forest harvesting on moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martes americana) habitats in northeastern British Columbia

Strîmbu, Bogdan M.; Innes, John L.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.02.007

Cited by 15 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 95 publications

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“…To identify patterns within environmental response to human activities a fundamental change of the CIA methods was advocated by Strimbu and Innes (2011), change derived from the methodology developed by Boltzmann (1995)for molecular thermodynamics. The change requires the development of a multitude of possible environmental evolutions, called futures by Strimbu and Innes (2011), futures that are possible and independent.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To address the lack of confidence in the results supplied by one modeling platform, Strimbu and Innes (2011) advocated the usage of a series of independent platforms. Developing a large set of independent possible evolutions of the environment Strimbu and Innes (2011) proposed a methodology for strategic cumulative impact assessments (CIA) based on univariate repeated measures analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Developing a large set of independent possible evolutions of the environment Strimbu and Innes (2011) proposed a methodology for strategic cumulative impact assessments (CIA) based on univariate repeated measures analysis. The proposed methodology focuses impact assessments with long time-frames on patterns identification rather than on a specific set of effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The delineated patterns were further used to compute the confidence in the results, understood as the probability to reject the null hypothesis evaluating the existence of patterns. The aim of this study is to build on the findings of Strimbu and Innes (2011), and to provide a multivariate perspective on the cumulated impacts of specific human activities (i.e., petroleum drilling and forest harvesting) on the environment, specifically pattern delineation and the attributes associated with the respective patterns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Framework for assessing the impact of human activities on the environment: the impact of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on habitat of moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martens americana)

Strîmbu

Innes

2012

Biodivers Conserv

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The environmental changes induced by projects occurring in an area are evaluated by cumulative impact assessments (CIA), which consider the consequences of multiple projects, each insignificant on its own, yet important when evaluated collectively. When future human activities are of interest, the proposed activities are included in CIA using an analytical platform that can supply precise predictions but with asymptotically null accuracy. To compensate for the lack of accuracy we propose a shift in the paradigm governing CIA. The paradigm shift advocates a change in the focus of CIA investigations from the detailed analysis of one unlikely future to the identification of patterns describing the future changes in the environment. To illustrate the paradigm shift, a set of 144 possible and equally likely futures were developed and used to identify the potential impacts of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on the habitat of moose and marten. The univariate and multivariate analysis of two measures of habitat, namely average habitat suitability index (HSI) and surface of the stands with HSI[0.5, revealed at least three distinct periods in the next 100 years. Multivariate analysis also showed that habitat quality is of immediate importance and marten is sensitive during the first third of the century. Our findings indicate that the spatial and temporal arrangement of the human disturbances could be more important than the magnitude of the disturbance. The attributes associated with significant environmental changes are harvesting age and the investigated environmental elements of an ecosystem, in this case the species habitat.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Framework for assessing the impact of human activities on the environment: the impact of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on habitat of moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martens americana)

Strîmbu

Innes

2012

Biodivers Conserv

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“…Outside of the MuskwaKechika in northeast British Columbia, cumulative effects of multiple natural resource developments have altered the distribution of wildlife habitats, reduced the amount of lateseral habitats, and increased early seral communities (Nitschke 2008). Habitat quality is projected to decline for focal wildlife species in the region over the coming decades (Strimbu and Innes 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential conflict between future development of natural resources and high-value wildlife habitats in boreal landscapes

Suzuki

Parker

2016

Biodivers Conserv

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We used the Muskwa-Kechika Management Area in northeast British Columbia, Canada as a case study to determine potential conflicts between future resource development and high-value habitats of large mammals in an undeveloped boreal landscape. More than 50 % of high-value habitats for caribou, moose, elk, wolves and grizzly bears were located in Special Resource Management Zones, where natural resource developments could occur. We developed geographic information system (GIS) layers of potential forest resources, oil and gas, minerals, wind power, all resources combined, and roads; and quantified the proportions of high-value habitats overlapping these potentials. Greater proportions of high-value habitats across seasons for moose, elk, and wolves overlapped areas with high cumulative resource potential (winter, 49-70 %, growing season, 35-63 %) more than for three other species (grizzly bears, Stone's sheep, mountain goats). This pattern was similar for forest resources, oil and gas, wind power, and roads. Caribou were more seasonally influenced. The proportions of their high-value habitat in areas with high cumulative resource potential (winter, 53 %, growing season, 16 %), as well as high forest and oil and gas potentials, were greatest in winter; in contrast, overlap with high mineral potential was greatest during the growing season. We recommend a quantitative and visual GIS approach to scenario planning in the Muskwa-Kechika to maintain the abundance and diversity of wildlife populations there. Resource development would likely increase early seral habitats, presumably benefiting moose, elk, and wolves, but could adversely affect caribou and grizzly bears through habitat loss and increased access.

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Capacity for Watershed Cumulative Effects Assessment and Management: Lessons from the Lower Fraser River Basin, Canada

Kristensen

Noble

Patrick

2013

Environmental Management

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This study examines the capacity to support the cumulative effects assessment and management for watersheds. The research is set in the Lower Fraser River Basin, a densely populated sub-watershed in British Columbia's lower mainland. Eight requirements or requisites for the watershed cumulative effects assessment and management are applied to evaluate current capacity for implementation in the Lower Fraser, and to identify the areas in need of capacity development. Results show that advancing watershed cumulative effects assessment and management requires not only good science but also leadership in the coordination of monitoring programs, and in ensuring the appropriate incentives and penalties for engagement and nonengagement. The lack of leadership in this regard is the result of existing governance structures arranged around the political boundaries, which have produced over time multiple agencies and jurisdictional fragmentation. Notwithstanding this, we argue that the watershed is the most appropriate scale for assessing and managing the cumulative effects to complex ecosystems.

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An analytical platform for cumulative impact assessment based on multiple futures: The impact of petroleum drilling and forest harvesting on moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martes americana) habitats in northeastern British Columbia

Cited by 15 publications

References 95 publications

Framework for assessing the impact of human activities on the environment: the impact of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on habitat of moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martens americana)

Framework for assessing the impact of human activities on the environment: the impact of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on habitat of moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martens americana)

Potential conflict between future development of natural resources and high-value wildlife habitats in boreal landscapes

Capacity for Watershed Cumulative Effects Assessment and Management: Lessons from the Lower Fraser River Basin, Canada

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