An analysis of the trade balance for OECD countries using periodic integration and cointegration

Abstract

We analyze imbalances in external accounts that have historically a¤ected most developed countries. The purpose of this study is to shed some light on the sustainability of the current account for a group of OECD countries by merging the popular Husted (1992) testing procedure with recent econometric analysis dealing with seasonality. A necessary condition for current account sustainability is that exports and imports are cointegrated. Following previous empirical studies (Husted (1992), Arize (2002) and Hamori (2009)) we analyze the long-run relationship linking exports and imports, using quarterly data. In contrast to these studies, we explicitly deal with seasonal e¤ects through the use of periodic integration and cointegration and …nd a long-run relationship for the majority of the countries.

Análisis de la sostenibilidad del sector exterior en la OCDE con técnicas de multicointegración

“…De manera similar, IMF (2005) muestra los diferentes roles que desempeñan los efectos de valoración en los países emergentes e industriales. Para el caso español, véaseCamarero et al (2013).5 Algunos ejemplos sonHusted (1992),Fountas y Wu (1999),Irandoust y Sjoo (2000),Irandoust y Ericsson (2004),Arize (2002),Narayan y Narayan (2005), Herzer y Novak-Lehmann (2006) yHamori (2009) o delBarrio et al (2015Barrio et al ( , 2019, entre otros.…”