An analysis of onset date and rainy season duration over Zambia

Hachigonta, Sepo; Reason, C. J. C.; Tadross, Mark

doi:10.1007/s00704-007-0306-4

Cited by 54 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Fig. 4b indicates a decreasing trend in Duration_B over northern regions (except northwest 151 Zambia), extending through to southern Zambia and confirming the findings of Hachigonta et al (2008). Whilst most stations indicate insignificant trends, over southern Zambia this negative trend coincides with the region close to the critical threshold of seasonal duration for growing maize (Fig.…”

Section: Planting Dates and Duration Of Rainy Seasonsupporting

confidence: 76%

Growing-season rainfall and scenarios of future change in southeast Africa: implications for cultivating maize

Tadross¹,

Suarez²,

Lotsch³

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

119

121

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Global climate change is a detectable and attributable global phenomenon, yet its manifestation at the regional scale, especially within the rainfall record, can be difficult to identify. This problem is particularly acute over southern Africa, a region characterised by a low density of observations and highly dependent on rural agriculture, where the impact of rainfall changes on maize cultivation critically depends on the timing with respect to the crop phenological cycle. To evaluate changes in rainfall affecting maize cropping, daily rainfall observations from 104 stations across Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe were used to detect trends in planting dates, rainfall cessation and duration of the rainfall season, as well as number of dry days, length of dry spells and measures of rainfall intensity during critical periods for growing maize. Correlations with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) were used to infer how large-scale climate variability affects these attributes of rainfall and highlight where (and when) trends may contribute to more frequent crossings of critical thresholds. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was associated with changes in planting and cessation dates as well as the frequency of raindays during the rainfall season (particularly early in the season). AAO mainly affected raindays towards the end of the season when maize was planted late. Trends are discussed relative to changes projected in empirically downscaled scenarios of rainfall from 7 general circulation models for the 2046-2065 period, assuming an SRES A2 emissions scenario.

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Section: Planting Dates and Duration Of Rainy Seasonsupporting

confidence: 76%

Growing-season rainfall and scenarios of future change in southeast Africa: implications for cultivating maize

Tadross¹,

Suarez²,

Lotsch³

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

119

121

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“…In this study the onset of rains is defined as the last day in which rainfall of 25 mm or above has been accumulated over the previous 10 days and at least 20 mm accumulated in the subsequent 20 days (Tadross et al, 2005;Hachigonta et al, 2008). This is the criterion commonly used to determine the beginning of the growing period in most semi-arid areas in southern Africa for dryland maize production (SADC-RRSU, 2004;FEWSNET, 2009).…”

Section: Onset and Cessation Of Rains And Rainy Season Durationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainy season characteristics of the Free State Province of South Africa with reference to rain-fed maize production

Moeletsi¹,

Walker²

2012

WSA

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The study assesses onset of rains, cessation of rains, duration of rainy season and seasonal rainfall at different probability levels. Daily rainfall data for 309 stations located in the Free State Province of South Africa were analysed from 1950 to 2008. The cumulative rainfall over 3 consecutive dekads (10-day periods) and cumulative rainfall over 1 dekad were used to determine onset of rains and cessation of rains respectively. Seasonal rainfall was determined as the accumulated rainfall from November to March. Rainbow statistical software was utilised to test for normality and determine probabilities at 20%, 50% and 80% risk levels. The other rainy season characteristics investigated were the probability of onset failure and probability of rainy season duration of less than 50, 100, 120 and 140 days. These rainy season indices were investigated in relation to maize production in the Free State. Rainfall behaviour during the growing period is one of the main limiting factors to rain-fed maize production, consequently influencing household food security. The results show that for onset of rains there is a large spatial variance over the Free State while cessation of rains shows small variance. There is also an east to west progression of onsets while the duration of the rainy season and seasonal rainfall also increased from west to east. Areas of low risk associated with rainy season characteristics are evident over the Thabo Mofutsanyane, eastern Motheo, eastern and northeastern Lejweleputswa and the Fezile Dabi districts, making these areas highly suitable for maize production. By contrast, high-risk areas are in the western and southern parts of the province and thus dryland maize production has low production potential in these areas.

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“…Nevertheless, the September-November season is quite important agriculturally speaking given that it corresponds to the time of planting as well as the onset of the rainy season for most of this region (e.g. Hachigonta et al 2008). A detailed analysis is beyond the scope of this paper, but given these distinct seasonal features of the basin, the subsequent analyses will, Fig.…”

Section: Greater Zambezi River Basin (Zrb)mentioning

confidence: 99%