An analysis of long-term regional-scale ozone simulations over the Northeastern United States: variability and trends

Hogrefe, Christian; Hao, Winston; Zalewsky, Eric; Ku, Jia‐Yeong; Lynn, Barry; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Schultz, Martin; Rast, Sebastian; Newchurch, M.; Wang, L.; Kinney, Patrick L.; Sistla, Gopal

doi:10.5194/acp-11-567-2011

Cited by 66 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…An alternative could be to use regional models which have been shown in some cases to improve performance in replicating O 3 measurements and trends (Emery et al, 2012;Wilson et al, 2012). The definition of lateral boundary conditions (for both long-range and stratospheric O 3 transport) remains however a key element, in particular to reproduce the lower percentiles of ozone distribution as reported in Hogrefe et al (2011) andEmery (2012). Future global hindcast simulations should therefore seek to employ fully coupled stratospheretroposphere models, higher vertical and horizontal resolution, and to include improved regional emission scenarios in order to simulate accurately ozone trends.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We focus over the summer season when sunshine drives O 3 levels above air pollution regulations defined by environmental protection agencies. Even though longrange transport in the Northern Hemisphere is minimal in summer, it can influence ground-level O 3 limit exceedances in this season (Fiore et al, 2002;Wang et al, 2009;Hogrefe et al, 2011). We compare observed and simulated changes in probability distribution of daily maximum 8-h average summer O 3 concentration for a period from 1991 to 2005.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Can a global model reproduce observed trends in summertime surface ozone levels?

Koumoutsaris

Bey

2012

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Quantifying trends in surface ozone concentrations is critical for assessing pollution control strategies. Here we use observations and results from a global chemical transport model to examine the trends (1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) in daily maximum 8-h average concentrations in summertime surface ozone at rural sites in Europe and the United States (US). We find a decrease in observed ozone concentrations at the high end of the probability distribution at many of the sites in both regions. The model attributes these trends to a decrease in local anthropogenic ozone precursors, although simulated decreasing trends are overestimated in comparison with observed ones. The low end of observed distribution show small upward trends over Europe and the western US and downward trends in Eastern US. The model cannot reproduce these observed trends, especially over Europe and the western US. In particular, simulated changes between the low and high end of the distributions in these two regions are not significant. Sensitivity simulations indicate that emissions from far away source regions do not affect significantly summer ozone trends at both ends of the distribution in both Europe and US. Possible reasons for discrepancies between observed and simulated trends are discussed.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can a global model reproduce observed trends in summertime surface ozone levels?

Koumoutsaris

Bey

2012

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…Jonson et al, 2006;van Loon et al, 2007;Vautard et al, 2007;Gilliland et al, 2008;Zhang et al, 2009bZhang et al, , 2013Colette et al, 2011;Godowitch et al, 2011;Hogrefe et al, 2011;Zubler et al, 2011). It has been demonstrated that uncertain emission inventories, data assimilation approaches used in meteorology models, and initial/boundary conditions can influence dynamic evaluation of model-predicted changes in ambient air quality (Napolenock et al, 2011;Kang et al, 2012).…”

Section: A Baklanov Et Al: Online Coupled Regional Meteorology Chemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects

et al. 2014

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Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A. Baklanov et al.: Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in EuropeAbstract. Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. Two ways of online coupling can be distinguished: online integrated and online access coupling. Online integrated models simulate meteorology and chemistry over the same grid in one model using one main time step for integration. Online access models use independent meteorology and chemistry modules that might even have different grids, but exchange meteorology and chemistry data on a regular and frequent basis. This article offers a comprehensive review of the current research status of online coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry modelling within Europe. Eighteen regional online coupled models developed or being used in Europe are described and compared. Topics discussed include a survey of processes relevant to the interactions between atmospheric physics, dynamics and composition; a brief overview of existing online mesoscale models and European model developments; an analysis on how feedback processes are treated in these models; numerical issues associated with coupled models; and several case studies and model performance evaluation methods. Finally, this article highlights selected scientific issues and emerging challenges that require proper consideration to improve the reliability and usability of these models for the three scientific communities: air quality, numerical meteorology modelling (including weather prediction) and climate modelling. This review will be of particular interest to model developers and users in all three fields as it presents a synthesis of scientific progress and provides recommendations for future research directions and priorities in the development, application and evaluation of online coupled models.

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“…Additional comparisons derive from examples of local or regional analyses in California, the Northeast, and the South: for example, the California Air Resource Board (CARB, 2014a), the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (Bureau of Air Quality Analysis and Surveillance, 2007; Department of Environmental Conservation [NYS], 2013), the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP, 2009), and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ, 2013). Virtually no comparisons of long-term trends with air quality model projections since 1990 have been reported except in Hogrefe et al (2011) and Xing et al (2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

Hidy¹,

Blanchard²

2015

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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Numerous papers analyze ground-level ozone (O 3 ) trends since the 1980s, but few have linked O 3 trends with observed changes in nitrogen oxide (NO x ) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and ambient concentrations. This analysis of emissions and ambient measurements examines this linkage across the United States on multiple spatial scales from continental to urban. O 3 concentrations follow the general decreases in both NO x and VOC emissions and ambient concentrations of precursors (nitrogen dioxide, NO 2 ; nonmethane organic compounds, NMOCs). Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8-hr average ozone and annual average or 98th percentile daily maximum hourly NO 2 concentrations show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear fit whose slope is less than 1:1 and intercept is in the 30 to >50 ppbv range. This empirical relationship is consistent with current understanding of O 3 photochemistry. The linear O 3 -NO 2 relationships found from our multispatial scale analysis can be used to extrapolate the rate of change of O 3 with projected NO x emission reductions, which suggests that future declines in annual fourth-highest daily average 8-hr maximum O 3 concentrations are unlikely to reach 65 ppbv or lower everywhere in the next decade. Measurements do not indicate increased annual reduction rates in (high) O 3 concentrations beyond the multidecadal precursor proportionality, since aggressive measures for NO x and VOC reduction are in place and have not produced an accelerated O 3 reduction rate beyond that prior to the mid-2000s. Empirically estimated changes in O 3 with emissions suggest that O 3 is less sensitive to precursor reductions than is found by the CAMx (v. 6.1) photochemical model. Options for increasing the rate of O 3 change are limited by photochemical factors, including the increase in NO x sensitivity with time (NMOC/NO x ratio increase), increase in O 3 production efficiency at lower NO x concentrations (higher O 3 /NO y ratio), and the presence of natural NO x and NMOC precursors and background O 3 .Implications: This analysis demonstrates empirical relations between O 3 and precursors based on long term trends in U.S. locations. The results indicate that ground-level O 3 concentrations have responded predictably to reductions in VOC and NO x since the 1980s. The analysis reveals linear relations between the highest O 3 and NO 2 concentrations. Extrapolation of the historic trends to the future with expected continued precursor reductions suggest that achieving the 2014 proposed reduction in the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard to a level between 65 and 70 ppbv is unlikely within the next decade. Comparison of measurements with national results from a regulatory photochemical model, CAMx, v. 6.1, suggests that model predictions are more sensitive to emissions changes than the observations would support.

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An analysis of long-term regional-scale ozone simulations over the Northeastern United States: variability and trends

Cited by 66 publications

References 51 publications

Can a global model reproduce observed trends in summertime surface ozone levels?

Can a global model reproduce observed trends in summertime surface ozone levels?

Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

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