Abstract:PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to model the components of credit risk in primary debt markets and evaluate changes in these factors in times of crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a unique dataset consisting of nearly 163,000 new loans and bond issues in the USA and internationally during the period January 1992 through December 2005.FindingsThe authors find that credit spreads are related to market liquidity, best represented by total proceeds, ratings and the interaction between maturity a… Show more
“…A further complementary problem is represented by the credit crunch occurred since 2008, with an impact on both loan availability and credit spreads (Morgan and Murtagh, 2012). Scarcer and more expensive funds have a direct impact on investments and a somewhat surreptitious effect on their long-term risk, affecting bankability and debt service.…”
Section: Value For Money In Italian Project Financementioning
Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to detect how Value for Money (VfM) in Italian Project Finance (PF) investments can be enhanced and challenging criticalities minimized, with a synergistic interaction of macroeconomic, legal and institutional actions.
Design/methodology/approach
– Analysis of VfM quantitative key drivers, within a public-private partnership (PPP) framework with specific reference to a recession context, with infrastructural capital rationing implications. Empirical evidence is given by an Italian PF healthcare model, testing the impact of legal and macroeconomic changes.
Findings
– Deleverage, ignited by W-shaped recession, disinflates PPP investments, so forcing to innovative and penniless solutions. Unreliable and short-sighted legislation and consequent unfriendly business climate may frighten investors, so decreasing competition and VfM.
Research limitations/implications
– VfM sensitivity to macroeconomic and legal/institutional parameters is too wide and capriciously erratic to be comprehensively modeled. Tips for further research include pro-growth tax and budgetary policies, risk minimization issues and other synergistic targets.
Practical implications
– Guidance to regulators to fine tune legal and institutional tools, so as to create a stable, business friendly environment. Recessions may be softened by sensitive policymaking, or exacerbated by short-sighted ignorance and lack of strategic focus.
Originality/value
– Unprecedented analysis of legal and macroeconomic changes on VfM in Italian PF investments, with original tips for VfM optimization, in a comprehensive PPP framework.
“…A further complementary problem is represented by the credit crunch occurred since 2008, with an impact on both loan availability and credit spreads (Morgan and Murtagh, 2012). Scarcer and more expensive funds have a direct impact on investments and a somewhat surreptitious effect on their long-term risk, affecting bankability and debt service.…”
Section: Value For Money In Italian Project Financementioning
Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to detect how Value for Money (VfM) in Italian Project Finance (PF) investments can be enhanced and challenging criticalities minimized, with a synergistic interaction of macroeconomic, legal and institutional actions.
Design/methodology/approach
– Analysis of VfM quantitative key drivers, within a public-private partnership (PPP) framework with specific reference to a recession context, with infrastructural capital rationing implications. Empirical evidence is given by an Italian PF healthcare model, testing the impact of legal and macroeconomic changes.
Findings
– Deleverage, ignited by W-shaped recession, disinflates PPP investments, so forcing to innovative and penniless solutions. Unreliable and short-sighted legislation and consequent unfriendly business climate may frighten investors, so decreasing competition and VfM.
Research limitations/implications
– VfM sensitivity to macroeconomic and legal/institutional parameters is too wide and capriciously erratic to be comprehensively modeled. Tips for further research include pro-growth tax and budgetary policies, risk minimization issues and other synergistic targets.
Practical implications
– Guidance to regulators to fine tune legal and institutional tools, so as to create a stable, business friendly environment. Recessions may be softened by sensitive policymaking, or exacerbated by short-sighted ignorance and lack of strategic focus.
Originality/value
– Unprecedented analysis of legal and macroeconomic changes on VfM in Italian PF investments, with original tips for VfM optimization, in a comprehensive PPP framework.
“…The finding that rare events significantly alter equity risk premium in the market lends well to the concept that risk was mispriced during these times. Studies such as Morgan and Murtagh (2012) and Avino et al (2013) show empirically this concept through measuring credit spreads during crises, particularly showing the notion that credit spreads are related to market liquidity. In these types of cases, the link between the Arrow-Pratt approximation and the risk premium is tenuous at best.…”
PurposeThe Arrow–Pratt approximation to the risk premium is only valid for small risks. In this paper we consider a second approximation, based on risk-neutral probabilities and which requires no greater information than the Arrow–Pratt approximation, that works well for both small and large risks.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is theoretical in nature, although it also provides illustrative numerical simulations.FindingsThe new approximation proposed here appears to be significantly superior to Arrow–Pratt for approximating the true value of the risk premium when the risk is large. It may also approximate better even for relatively small risks.Originality/valueAs far as we are aware, there are no other known approximations for the risk premium when the risk involved is large.
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