An Analogue Approach to Predicting Branch Closures

Abstract

<p>Retail Banking in Canada has experienced significant change through evolving retail trends and consumer demand. Led by banks referred to as the ‘Big Five’, retail branches are at the forefront for optimization and digital disruption allowing banks to close a significant proportion of their retail branches. To understand the implication of branch closures, this research examines the relationship between market demographics and branch closures leveraging analogous methods. Digital & retail trends have shifted the role of the branch channel, as such research has indicated that although branch closures create savings and digital engagement opportunities, negative implications such as financial exclusion and branch deserts can occur. Demographic and closure data is used to determine what metrics branch closures have in common and how that can predict future closures. The results at a provincial and regional level depict trends, however the methods indicate demographics are not statistically significant to predict future closures.</p>