An Aging Population And Growing Disease Burden Will Require ALarge And Specialized Health Care Workforce By 2025

Abstract

As the US population ages, the increasing prevalence of chronic disease and complex medical conditions will have profound implications for the future health care system. We projected future prevalence of selected diseases and health risk factors to model future demand for health care services for each person in a representative sample of the current and projected future population. Based on changing demographic characteristics and expanded medical coverage under the Affordable Care Act, we project that the demand for adult primary care services will grow by approximately 14 percent between 2013 and 2025. Vascular surgery has the highest projected demand growth (31 percent), followed by cardiology (20 percent) and neurological surgery, radiology, and general surgery (each 18 percent). Market indicators such as long wait times to obtain appointments suggest that the current supply of many specialists throughout the United States is inadequate to meet the current demand. Failure to train sufficient numbers and the correct mix of specialists could exacerbate already long wait times for appointments, reduce access to care for some of the nation's most vulnerable patients, and reduce patients' quality of life.

Finnish social and health care professionals’ perspective of the future

“…[19] At the same time, however, healthcare costs will increase in Europe due to, among other things, the lengthening life expectancy of the population and the high cost of new treatment methods. [20] Dall and colleagues [21] state that with the increase in the number of elderly people, more and more specialised professionals will be needed in specialised health care, in which case costs will rise considerably. On the other hand, the number of elderly people in employment has risen in Finland in recent years due to an increasing number of persons who reach the old-age retirement age in good health.…”

Attrition of Surgical Faculty in an Academic Medical Center

“…On the demand side, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) estimates that total physician demand will grow by 112,000 full-time equivalents and with static supply, the U.S. likely will have a shortage of between 23,100 and 31,600 surgical specialists by 2025. An analysis of the demand side also indicates that an aging population, growing disease burden, and expanded medical coverage under the Affordable Care Act will further increase demand for General Surgeons by 18% and Vascular Surgeons by 31% by 2025 (Dall et al, 2013). This compares to increases in demand for adult primary care physicians of 13% (Dall et al, 2013).…”

“…An analysis of the demand side also indicates that an aging population, growing disease burden, and expanded medical coverage under the Affordable Care Act will further increase demand for General Surgeons by 18% and Vascular Surgeons by 31% by 2025 (Dall et al, 2013). This compares to increases in demand for adult primary care physicians of 13% (Dall et al, 2013).…”

Strategic Modeling of the Pediatric Nurse Practitioner Workforce

“…12 The necessity for improved workforce planning models and educational changes has also been echoed by George Thibault, president of the Josiah Macy Foundation, 13 and by recent studies, including those by Iglehart 14 and Dall. 15 Our work aims to complement the existing literature on the nursing workforce (eg, Auerbach 16 and Buerhaus et al 17 ) by including optimal decision-making with forecasting models of PNP supply and demand.To address the worsening scarcity of PNPs and the expanding demand for their professional services, we developed a novel framework for analyzing the PNP workforce in the United States and present the impact of a variety of policy options that will affect the pipeline of registered nurses (RNs) and nursing school students who enter PNP training programs. Using the proposed framework, we provide policy suggestions for addressing the disparity between supply and demand of PNPs.…”

“…12 The necessity for improved workforce planning models and educational changes has also been echoed by George Thibault, president of the Josiah Macy Foundation, 13 and by recent studies, including those by Iglehart 14 and Dall. 15 Our work aims to complement the existing literature on the nursing workforce (eg, Auerbach 16 and Buerhaus et al 17 ) by including optimal decision-making with forecasting models of PNP supply and demand.…”