An Agent-Based Model to Identify Migration Pathways of Refugees: The Case of Syria

Hébert, Guillaume Arnoux; Pérez, Liliana; Harati, Saeed

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-65993-0_4

Cited by 22 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The Convention defined a refugee as an individual living outside his or her country of nationality, who is unable or unwilling to return because of a well-substantiated fear of persecution due to race, religion, nationality, membership in a political social group, etc. Here we also consider humans adversely affected by climate change, as refugees, and note that, as emphasized by Hebert et al [13], among the most studied causes of human migration are climate issues and conflicts, as well as economic reasons. In this paper, since the focus is on refugees, we do not emphasize the latter, but concentrate on the two former reasons for migration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Refugee migration networks and regulations: a multiclass, multipath variational inequality framework

2020

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In this paper, we take up the timely topic of the modeling, analysis, and solution of refugee migration networks. We construct a general, multiclass, multipath model, determine the governing equilibrium conditions, and provide alternative variational inequality formulations in path flows and in link flows. We also demonstrate how governmental imposed regulations associated with refugees can be captured via constraints. We provide qualitative properties and then establish, via a supernetwork transformation, that the model(s) are isomorphic to traffic network equilibrium models with fixed demands. Illustrative examples are given, along with numerical examples, inspired by a refugee crisis from Mexico to the United States, which are solved using the Euler method embedded with exact equilibration. The work sets the foundation for the development of additional models and algorithms and also provides insights as to who wins and who loses under certain refugee regulations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Refugee migration networks and regulations: a multiclass, multipath variational inequality framework

2020

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“…ABM in the context of forced migration allows for a detailed simulation of forced migration by including dynamic actions and interactions of different agents that are involved in the migration and its humanitarian response management. A number of projects related to movement and migration have been modeled using ABMs (Collins & Frydenlund, 2016;Groen, 2016;Hassani-Mahmooei & Parris, 2012;Hébert 2018 ). Bayesian models can be viewed as a probabilistic framework for a dynamic systems model.…”

Section: Measuring Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Model of Displacement

Martin¹,

Singh²,

Taylor³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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This paper focuses on an important pre-condition for effective forecasting—a theoretical model that captures the full range of drivers that are implicated in decisions to move from one location to another. The paper first reviews the academic literature on the drivers of displacement. It also discusses the corollary of displacement—immobility that may be forced or voluntary. The heart of the article is the model of displacement that we have developed. We describe the process through which we developed the model and then explain its components. We conclude with a discussion of potential approaches that could be used to test the model.

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“…We used a Genetic Algorithm [GA] approach in order to calibrate the parameters in the decision process [14]. Although the calibration of ABM using GA has been done before [10], a systematic empirical calibration in the simulation of refugee movements is a new step forward, since previous work stopped short of a full integration of data [9]. In the case described here, the calibration is driven purely by the data, with the result that the calibrated simulation generates patterns that replicate empirical migration data to a close (and quantifiable) extent.…”

Section: Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another recent work by Hebert et al presents an agent-based model of movements from Syria. Although the model includes a range of variables as well as a suitable decisionmaking mechanism regarding the context of displacement, it leaves a gap for data calibration and policy exploration [9]. Migration is a phenomenon that is subject to frequent policy shifts and spatial changes.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial analysis of border closure intervention scheme in conflict-induced displacement

Jafari¹,

Davies²,

Johnson³

2020

Proceedings of the 3rd ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on GeoSpatial Simulation

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Since 2011, Syria has experienced episodes of large-scale conflict and violence. Syrian Civil War has exposed the global society to increasingly flow of refugees who are forcibly displaced from their homes due to persecution, conflict, violence, or human rights violations. The inconsistent responses from humanitarian organisations and governments indicate lack of robust framework to assess and evaluate policy responses. In this article, we examine the effect of border control policies via a data-driven agent-based model of refugee flows from Syria. We implement policy scenarios and investigate the consequences in the flow pattern in terms of measuring the size of flows and the potential destinations. We demonstrate that the spatial configuration of borders intended to be closed directly influence the consequences of the corresponding closure policy. CCS CONCEPTS • Computing methodologies → Modeling and simulation; • Applied computing → Law, social and behavioral sciences;

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An Agent-Based Model to Identify Migration Pathways of Refugees: The Case of Syria

Cited by 22 publications

References 31 publications

Refugee migration networks and regulations: a multiclass, multipath variational inequality framework

Refugee migration networks and regulations: a multiclass, multipath variational inequality framework

Dynamic Model of Displacement

Spatial analysis of border closure intervention scheme in conflict-induced displacement

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