An agent-based model of sleeping sickness: simulation trials of a forest focus in southern Cameroon

Müller, Guillaume; Grébaut, Pascal; Gouteux, Jean‐Paul

doi:10.1016/j.crvi.2003.12.002

Cited by 36 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…It was found that minor modifications of switch rates by natural selection are required to develop a sequence of ordered parasitaemias. Muller et al 28 introduced a spatialised, agent-based model to account for activity-related movements in humans, the density and mobility of tsetse flies, and the influence of other tsetse-feeding hosts. They found that prevalence is very sensitive to human densities and to the number of tsetse flies initially infected in a given location.…”

Section: Mathematical Modeling Of Ntdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neglected Tropical Diseases: Infection, Modeling, and Control

Kealey¹,

Smith²

2010

Journal of Health Care for the Poor and Underserved

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We survey the current state of a group of parasitic and microbial diseases called the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs). These diseases currently infect a billion people, primarily in socioeconomically depressed areas of the world, are a leading cause of worldwide disability, and are responsible for approximately 534,000 deaths per year. We focus on several subcategories: protozoans, helminthes and bacterial diseases. We identify the populations most at risk from these diseases, and outline symptoms and other disease burdens. We examine the progress being made in controlling NTDs, including the current state of drug development. We also examine mathematical modeling of NTDs. While mathematical modeling is not bound by many of the strictures of access, data collection and infrastructure funding, we nevertheless demonstrate that few NTDs have received much attention from mathematical models, and that some have received no attention at all. Simple mathematical models could contribute significantly to our understanding of these diseases and the efforts required to control them, at very little cost. Further investment in prevention, treatment and awareness of NTDs is urgently warranted.

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Section: Mathematical Modeling Of Ntdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neglected Tropical Diseases: Infection, Modeling, and Control

Kealey¹,

Smith²

2010

Journal of Health Care for the Poor and Underserved

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“…Thus, we can suggest that the TRI should be reinforced by the introduction of the animal reservoir as a new parameter. Recently, Müller et al (2004) used it successfully while simulating the spread of HAT by the way of an agent-based model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Human African Trypanosomosis (HAT) Transmission Risk in the Bipindi Focus, in the Forest Zone of Southern Cameroon

Grébaut

Mbida

Kondjio

et al. 2004

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases

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Vector control is an effective and cost-efficient way to disrupt the transmission of human African trypanosomosis (HAT); it has nonetheless been little used to date in the disease's foci. With the aim to target trapping more precisely and to develop an optimized vector control system, a transmission risk index was used in the HAT focus of Bipindi, in the forest zone of southern Cameroon. The authors used a simplified version of the index originally developed by Laveissière et al. in 1994. The calculation of this new index only requires knowledge of the proportion of teneral flies and the proportion of flies with human blood meals in samples caught in different biotopes. This makes it possible to identify the biotopes displaying permanent risk, such as riverbanks, as well as biotopes displaying seasonal risk, such as marshy hollows and encampmemts. In the villages, the domestic pig, with 49% of the identified blood meals, is the favorite host of the tsetse flies during the short rainy season. The proportion of blood meals taken on human beings does not significantly increase when domestic pigs are absent. Game animals, contributing to 46% and 64% of the blood meals during the short rainy season and the long dry season, respectively, are also favored as feeding hosts in this particular HAT focus.

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“…Muller et al (2004) use an agent-based contact model to explore the spread of tsetse-transmitted human African Trypanosomosis. The model is an excellent example of how simulation can be used to capture details of biological complexity that are impossible for simple analytic models.…”

Section: October 2012 Peck and Bouyer: Tsetse Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling, Spatial Complexity, and Critical Decisions in Tsetse Control

Peck¹,

Bouyer

2012

jnl. econ. entom.

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The tsetse fly complex (Glossina spp.) is widely recognized as a key contributor to the African continent's continuing struggle to emerge from deep economic, social, and political problems. Vector control, the backbone of intensive efforts to remove the human and livestock trypanosomosis problem, has been typified by spectacular successes and failures. There is widespread agreement that integrated vector control, combined with direct disease treatment and prevention, has to play a major role in alleviating the tsetse burden in Africa. Mathematical and computer-based simulation models have been extensively used to try to understand how best to manage these control efforts. Such models in ecology have been helpful in giving broad generalizations about population dynamics and control. Unfortunately, in many ways they have inadequately addressed key aspects of the fly's biology and ecology, particularly the spatio-temporal variability of its habitats. These too must factor in any control efforts. Mathematical models have inherent limitations that must be considered in their use for control programs. In this review, we consider some of the controversies being debated within the field of ecology and evolution about the use of mathematical models and critically review several models that have been influential in structuring tsetse control efforts. We also make recommendations on the appropriate role that mathematical and simulation models should play when used for these purposes. Management programs are often vulnerable to naively using these models inappropriately. The questions raised in this review will apply broadly to many conservation and area-wide pest control programs with an ecological component relying on mathematical and computer simulation models to inform their decisions.

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An agent-based model of sleeping sickness: simulation trials of a forest focus in southern Cameroon

Cited by 36 publications

References 26 publications

Neglected Tropical Diseases: Infection, Modeling, and Control

Neglected Tropical Diseases: Infection, Modeling, and Control

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Human African Trypanosomosis (HAT) Transmission Risk in the Bipindi Focus, in the Forest Zone of Southern Cameroon

Mathematical Modeling, Spatial Complexity, and Critical Decisions in Tsetse Control

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