An agent-based model of a multimodal near-field tsunami evacuation: Decision-making and life safety

Wang, Haizhong; Mostafizi, Alireza; Cramer, Lori A.; Cox, Dan; Park, Hyoungsu

doi:10.1016/j.trc.2015.11.010

Cited by 184 publications

(130 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Two approaches can be distinguished in evacuation transportation modeling studies: optimization‐based and simulation‐based approaches. Optimization‐based approaches determine normative evacuation decisions and traffic flows in terms of, for example, the staging of travel demands, the usage of dedicated evacuation routes and exit points, and the deployment of traffic control measures . Several of these studies incorporate sources of uncertainty, which may also be related to evacuation compliance behavior .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In short, the least understood issues are: (1) what determines a person's risk recognition; (2) how can risk recognition be captured in evacuation demand models; and (3) how should it be considered in evacuation planning. These three issues are addressed in this article.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These three issues are addressed in this article. To this end, (1) we analyze empirical data based on survey responses from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake; (2) we formulate and estimate an ordered logit model to predict people's level of risk recognition; and (3) we use the estimated model to evaluate the role of risk recognition, including aspects of risk education, disaster information provision, and emergency warning. The article is structured as follows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

Urata

Pel

2017

Risk Analysis

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Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

Urata

Pel

2017

Risk Analysis

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“…Takabatake et al (2017) developed an agentbased tsunami evacuation model which considers the different behaviour of local residents and visitors, which can estimate the evacuation time, number of individuals reaching each evacuation area, the location of bottlenecks and the number of casualties. Wang et al (2016) presents a multimodal evacuation simulation for a near-field tsunami through an agent-based modelling framework to investigate how the varying decision time impacts the mortality rate, how the choice of different modes of transportation (i.e., walking and automobile) and how existence of vertical evacuation gates impacts the estimation of casualties.…”

Section: Related Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

An Evacuation Simulator for Exploring Mutual Assistance Activities in Neighborhood Communities for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation

Karashima

Ohgai

2018

IRSPSD International

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Abstract:Japan is at great risk of being struck by huge earthquakes. When a strong earthquake occurs, various other disasters such as fire, collapsing buildings, and road blockages simultaneously occur as a result. In such a situation, it is difficult to ensure that the local emergency activities by, for example, the public fire company and community volunteers, are sufficient. Considering this issue, mutual assistance among residents, such as firefighting, evacuating victims, and helping those in need of assistance to designated safety sites, is extremely important. This paper proposes the development of an evacuation activities simulator, considering the capability of mutual assistance under various earthquake disasters to support exploration of community-based activities. In particular, the simulator calculates the time that local resident agents take to evacuate to the designated safety site, and the number of agents that can and cannot evacuate. Users can change the ratio of those who cannot evacuate to the designated safety site based on whether they are without some support or with persons who support them. Therefore, users can compare the simulation results of various outcomes. Through the experimental demonstration the following findings were obtained. Confirming the simulation results, users can understand that human suffering is reduced by mutual assistance activities. In addition, users can distinguish when the capability of mutual assistance is high or low, and when the capability of mutual assistance is changed according to the time of day due to the presence of the commuting population. Therefore, users can explore the countermeasures used to reduce human suffering when the capability of mutual assistance is low.

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“…Although the development of ABM is intricate, such as being a complicated development process, being difficult to understand, challenging to collect the required data, difficult to validate, commonly needing very large runs due to the randomness, and complex in analysing the output, it provides a promising approach to simulating human-natural system interaction [21,[60][61][62][63][64][65][66]. Its advantages enable ABM to be better at representing human behaviour in decision-making [67], especially when dealing with disaster events. This approach has been applied to a range of hazards; for instance, fire and building damage-related hazards [68][69][70][71], hurricanes [13], and tsunami [14,67].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia

et al. 2018

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As the size of human populations increases, so does the severity of the impacts of natural disasters. This is partly because more people are now occupying areas which are susceptible to hazardous natural events, hence, evacuation is needed when such events occur. Evacuation can be the most important action to minimise the impact of any disaster, but in many cases there are always people who are reluctant to leave. This paper describes an agent-based model (ABM) of evacuation decisions, focusing on the emergence of reluctant people in times of crisis and using Merapi, Indonesia as a case study. The individual evacuation decision model is influenced by several factors formulated from a literature review and survey. We categorised the factors influencing evacuation decisions into two opposing forces, namely, the driving factors to leave (evacuate) versus those to stay, to formulate the model. The evacuation decision (to stay/leave) of an agent is based on an evaluation of the strength of these driving factors using threshold-based rules. This ABM was utilised with a synthetic population from census microdata, in which everyone is characterised by the decision rule. Three scenarios with varying parameters are examined to calibrate the model. Validations were conducted using a retrodictive approach by performing spatial and temporal comparisons between the outputs of simulation and the real data. We present the results of the simulations and discuss the outcomes to conclude with the most plausible scenario. of 30year, Indonesia was the fourth most frequently affected Asian country [4]. Among the various natural hazards, volcanic eruptions pose a significant threat to Indonesia, as it is located within the "Ring of Fire" [5]. Merapi is the most active volcano in Indonesia, and the 2010 eruption was ranked third in the world since 2005 in terms of impact [4]. Being in such susceptible areas, people living close to Merapi should, therefore, develop their awareness and preparedness to evacuate when a hazard occurs.Evacuation is an important life-saving action in any disaster [6], with a history as old as human history in saving lives from natural disasters [7]. It takes place by moving people from a hazardous area to a safer place in a very limited time [8]. This time limit depends on the speed of the onset of the hazard. Some hazards occur rapidly, with others more slowly [1,9]. For example, hurricanes or earthquakes happen very quickly, while global temperature variations, rises in sea level, drought, and disease affect society more slowly [9]. For fast-onset hazards, immediate responses leading to evacuation are needed, because being at the wrong place at the wrong time will quickly lead to fatalities. Volcanic eruptions can happen several days after the initial signs of instability, but it is also possible for them to happen several weeks later [10]. Therefore, immediate responses from the surrounding population are needed, but there are often cases of people who refuse, or are reluctant to evacuate from hazardous are...

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An agent-based model of a multimodal near-field tsunami evacuation: Decision-making and life safety

Cited by 184 publications

References 48 publications

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

An Evacuation Simulator for Exploring Mutual Assistance Activities in Neighborhood Communities for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation

Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia

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