An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Little, L. Richard; Punt, André E.; Mapstone, Bruce D.; Begg, Gavin A.; Goldman, Barry; Williams, Ashley J.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.08.004

Cited by 62 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…ECON-ECOL Tahvonen, 2009;Voss, et al, 2011;Voss, Quaas, Schmidt, Hoffmann 2014;Voss, Quaas, Schmidt, Tahvonen et al, 2014;Skonhoft et al, 2012;Tahvonen et al, 2013. 21 ELFSIM Little et al, 2007Little, Punt, Mapstone, Begg, Goldman, Ellis 2009;Little, Punt, Mapstone, Begg, Goldman, Williams, 2009;. 22 NPFTPBEM Dichmont, Punt, Deng, Dell, & Venables, 2003;Dichmont et al, 2010;Dichmont, Deng, Punt, Venables, & Hutton, 2012;Punt et al, 2010;Deng, Punt, Dichmont, Buckworth, & Burridge, 2015;.…”

Section: Stoch Hcr (Itq Wealth)unclassified

Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models—Evaluation, review and challenges for implementation

et al. 2017

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Marine ecosystems evolve under many interconnected and area-specific pressures. To fulfil society's intensifying and diversifying needs while ensuring ecologically sustainable development, more effective marine spatial planning and broader-scope management of marine resources is necessary. Integrated ecological-economic fisheries models (IEEFMs) of marine systems are needed to evaluate impacts and sustainability of potential management actions and understand, and anticipate ecological, economic and social dynamics at a range of scales from local to national and regional. To make these models most effective, it is important to determine how model characteristics and methods of communicating results influence the model implementation, the nature of the advice that can be provided and the impact on decisions taken by managers. This article presents a global review and comparative evaluation of 35 IEEFMs applied to marine fisheries and marine ecosystem resources to identify the characteristics that determine their usefulness, effectiveness and implementation. The focus is on fully integrated models that allow for feedbacks between ecological and human processes although not all the models reviewed achieve that. Modellers must invest more time to make models user friendly and to participate in management fora where models and model results can be explained and discussed. Such involvement is beneficial to all parties, leading to improvement of models and more effective implementation of advice, but demands substantial resources which must be built into the governance process. It takes time to develop effective processes for using IEEFMs requiring a long-term commitment to integrating multidisciplinary modelling advice into management decision-making. K E Y W O R D Sbio-economic models, comparative model evaluation, fisheries management advice, integrated ecological-economic fisheries models, marine spatial planning and cross-sector management, performance criteria and scales and risks, use and acceptance and implementation and communication and flexibility and complexity | INTRODUCTIONThere is a growing need for tools to evaluate policies and assess tradeoffs in management of marine resources and provision of ecosystem services such as fishing, aquaculture, renewable energy, shipping, conservation and recreation (Cormier, Kannen, Elliott, & Hall, 2015;Degnbol & Wilson, 2008;EU 2014;Langlois, Fréon, Steyer, Delgenés, & Hélias, 2014;White et al., 2012). It is necessary to elaborate and apply common principles and broader, interdisciplinary management evaluation in the use of marine space involving several types of activities and sectors Soma et al., 2013;Stelzenmüller et al., 2013;Sundblad et al., 2014). Policymakers need to know the costs and benefits of conserving ecosystem goods and services to manage them sustainably. Moreover, according to an ecosystembased approach to management, specific pressures, associated uncertainties and risks need to be taken into account (Douvere, 2008;Ehler & Douvere, 2009;Gi...

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Section: Stoch Hcr (Itq Wealth)unclassified

Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models—Evaluation, review and challenges for implementation

et al. 2017

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“…Furthermore, mismatches between quotas and availability incentivise agents to target species whose quota is cheaper either by changing to more speciesselective gear or by changing fishing location if the species occupy different regions of the ocean. Where we introduce variation in the efficiency of gear or fuel use, the more efficient agents prosper further under the ITQ system by buying quota from less efficient agents, therefore, eventually leading to consolidation of the fleet (if we allow boats to exit the fishery once earnings drop below some prescribed level; also shown in the model of Little et al 2009). We assessed the robustness of these seemingly realistic behaviours using ANTs (described above), and found all behaviours were persistent under at least ± 20% variation in relevant parameter values.…”

Section: Model Assessment Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A computational approach to managing coupled human–environmental systems: the POSEIDON model of ocean fisheries

et al. 2018

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Sustainable management of complex human-environment systems, and the essential services they provide, remains a major challenge, felt from local to global scales. These systems are typically highly dynamic and hard to predict, particularly in the context of rapid environmental change, where novel sets of conditions drive coupled socio-economic-environmental responses. Faced with these challenges, our tools for policy development, while informed by the past experience, must not be unduly constrained; they must allow equally for both the fine-tuning of successful existing approaches and the generation of novel ones in unbiased ways. We study ocean fisheries as an example class of complex human-environmental systems, and present a new model (POSEIDON) and computational approach to policy design. The model includes an adaptive agentbased representation of a fishing fleet, coupled to a simplified ocean ecology model. The agents (fishing boats) do not have programmed responses based on empirical data, but respond adaptively, as a group, to their environment (including policy constraints). This conceptual model captures qualitatively a wide range of empirically observed fleet behaviour, in response to a broad set of policies. Within this framework, we define policy objectives (of arbitrary complexity) and use Bayesian optimization over multiple model runs to find policy parameters that best meet the goals. The trade-offs inherent in this approach are explored explicitly. Taking this further, optimization is used to generate novel hybrid policies. We illustrate this approach using simulated examples, in which policy prescriptions generated by our computational methods are counterintuitive and thus unlikely to be identified by conventional frameworks.

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“…Maury and Gascuel 2001;Soulié and Thébaud 2006), empirical applications are still rare (e.g. Little et al 2004Little et al , 2009) because they are data-intensive (especially where the population is large) and computationally demanding. However, the ability to evaluate system non-linearity and potential thresholds is particularly relevant in a fisheries and climate-change context.…”

Section: Macro- Meso-and Micro-scale Economic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications

Plagányi

Bell

Bustamante

et al. 2011

Mar. Freshwater Res.

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Climate change presents significant challenges to modelling and managing aquatic resources. Equilibrium assumptions common in many modelling approaches need to be replaced by formulations that allow for changing baselines and integration of ongoing changes and adaptations by species, ecosystems and humans. As ecosystems change, so will the ways humans use, monitor and manage them. Consequently, adaptive management loops and supporting tools deserve more prominence in the management toolbox. Models are critical tools for providing an early understanding of the challenges to be faced by integrating observations and examining possible solutions. We review modelling tools currently available to incorporate the effect of climate change on marine and freshwater ecosystems, and the implications for management of natural resources. System non-linearity can confound interpretations and hence adaptive management responses are needed that are robust to unexpected outcomes. An improvement in the ability to model the effects of climate change from a social and economic perspective is necessary. The outputs from ‘end-to-end’ and socio-ecological models can potentially inform planning, in both Australia and the Pacific region, about how best to build resilience to climate change. In this context, the importance of well directed data-collection programs is also emphasised. Lessons from this region, which is advanced with regard to modelling approaches, can guide increased use of models to test options for managing aquatic resources worldwide.

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An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Cited by 62 publications

References 28 publications

Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models—Evaluation, review and challenges for implementation

Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models—Evaluation, review and challenges for implementation

A computational approach to managing coupled human–environmental systems: the POSEIDON model of ocean fisheries

Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications

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