An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management

Abstract

Effective flood incident management (FIM) requires successful operation of complex, interacting human and technological systems. A dynamic agent-based model of FIM processes has been developed to provide new insights which can be used for policy analysis and other practical applications. The model integrates remotely sensed information on topography, buildings and road networks with empirical survey data to fit characteristics of specific communities. The multiagent simulation has been coupled with a hydrodynamic model to estimate the vulnerability of individuals to flooding under different storm surge conditions, defence breach scenarios, flood warning times and evacuation strategies. A case study in the coastal town of Towyn in the United Kingdom has demonstrated the capacity of the model to analyse the risks of flooding to people, support flood emergency planning and appraise the benefits of flood incident management measures.

Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

“…However, research into the interactions between the physical water system and societal processes, as well as how DRR and vulnerability change over time is in its infancy. 49,50,51 Most risk assessments assume that vulnerability remains constant across time and space, as though individuals and other stakeholders do not adapt, learn from experience, or prepare for an event based on risk information or early warning. 52 In reality, adaptation dynamics are largely determined by the behavior and perception of the aforementioned stakeholders, influencing both the risk and each other's decisions, sometimes in unpredictable ways.…”

Coastal Flooding in the Solent: An Integrated Analysis of Defences and Inundation

“…In comparison with understanding at that time, coastal planners now benefit from a better understanding of the nature and degrees of exposure to flooding due to advances in coastal modelling e.g., [8]. Numerical simulation of coastal inundation is well demonstrated [9][10][11][12], although uncertainties, practical constraints, and the conceptual understanding of coastal flood systems can be limiting [13]; with poor flood incident management still resulting in widespread loss of life and other significant damages [14]. Hurricane Katrina demonstrated the catastrophic effects of defence failures in low-lying and populated coastal areas [15], while flooding in Bangkok has highlighted the impacts of flooding upon a large populous city, cf.…”

Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

“…Their research suggests that a simple warning is often not enough in emergency situations. Along this line, Dawson et al (2011) Modelling migration processes explicitly as a result of disasters is important as losses due to disasters are largely influenced by changes in population and their location (Hewitt, 1997). Makowsky et al (2006) and Smith et al (2010) model migration as an adaptation mechanism to natural catastrophes.…”