An agent-based exploration of the effect of multi-criteria decisions on complex socio-technical heat transitions

Nava-Guerrero, Graciela del Carmen; Hansen, Helle Hvid; Korevaar, Gijsbert; Lukszo, Zofia

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118118

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(71 reference statements)

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“…While some of the reviewed studies explicitly address energy communities (Wildt et al 2021 ; Nava-Guerrero et al 2021 , 2022 ), they do not deal with how energy communities are formed; nor how they could be expanded to include additional stakeholders like energy supply companies or local network operators. Especially these latter two could play a key role in the energy transition.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…What conditions (infrastructure, economic, regulatory) let them choose specific technologies? (Wildt et al 2021 ; Nava-Guerrero et al 2021 ; Nava-Guerrero et al 2022 ; Guerrero et al 2019 ; Fouladvand et al 2020 ) Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES): Topology and scale of new heat grids to exploit the heat storage potential of ATES? (Beernink et al 2022 ; Bloemendal et al 2018 ) Mobility: What size is necessary for an autonomous car-sharing fleet to limit waiting times to 15 min?…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Owners' household agents provide several preferences in choosing sustainable heating systems, such as group decisions, financial frameworks, and energy plan (transformation strategy). Study Nava-Guerrero et al (2022) investigates technologies and actor components in yearly steps over 30 years, with the agents representing households. The buildings' technical components include heating, insulation, and appliances.• "Local heating transition-energy planners and energy multi-utilities":Pagani et al (2020) addresses heat network extension.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Agent-based modeling (ABM) for urban neighborhood energy systems: literature review and proposal for an all integrative ABM approach

2022

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Advancing the energy transition in real-world urban settings is attracting interest within interdisciplinary research communities. New challenges for local energy balancing arise particularly in urban neighborhoods where densely populated buildings are facing the needs of the heat transition, an increasing use of battery-electric vehicles and an expansion of renewable energies. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a suitable approach for addressing various interlinked aspects like market mechanisms and processes, technology adoption, different stakeholder roles and the formulation of policy measures. In this work, we analyze peer-reviewed, open-access literature on ABM for energy neighborhoods and discuss key modeling aspects like model purpose and outcome, the logic of agents and decision-making, the treatment of space and time, and empirical grounding. These ABM allow the study of local market mechanisms, local renewable energy generation, microgrids, the unfolding of heat transition, neighborhood mobility and the evaluation of policies like regulation and financial incentives. We find a lack of integrated neighborhood energy assessments that simultaneously look at the different energy forms and applications: heating, electricity, and mobility. We present a consolidated ABM concept that integrates these sectors. Thus, our work contributes to the advancement of ABM and to the understanding of how to promote the transition to a decarbonized society in urban settings.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Agent-based modeling (ABM) for urban neighborhood energy systems: literature review and proposal for an all integrative ABM approach

2022

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“…These energy-relevant investment decisions are influenced by beliefs about consequences and receiving energy consulting and financial incentives (Kastner and Stern, 2015). Furthermore, the transition to new heating systems in owner-occupied residential properties is complex and involves individuals' and groups' cooperation and coordination in investment decisions (Nava-Guerrero et al, 2022). Drivers of changing to energy-efficient heating are complicated, with a mix of consumer engagement, energy efficiency, labelling, co-benefits, and communication channels (Neves and Oliveira, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Support for Energy Transition : Application of Multi-criteria Decision Making on Danish Residential Heating

Wen

2023

Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Licentiate Thesis

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With the increasing awareness of the impact of climate change, there has been more intention to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality targets. However, as one essential element for human well-being, residential heating remains a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. The complex, interdependent, and sometimes contradictory nature of factors influencing residential heating choices makes it a difficult problem to address. Multiple actors with different goals and priorities further complicate the decision-making process. Moreover, given the current energy crisis, selecting an appropriate heating system for residential areas has become even more crucial. Therefore, there is a need for decision support tools that can consider multi-dimensional factors and heating alternatives, which usually have a long-term impact involved in residential heating choices.First and foremost, my biggest thanks to my supervisors, Yang and Olof, who opened this journey to me after several rounds of interviews. Your patience, insight, and willingness to share your knowledge and expertise have been invaluable to me as I have navigated the challenges of conducting research and writing my thesis. Your constructive feedback has helped me to develop my critical thinking and writing skills, and your mentorship has helped me to become a more confident and capable researcher. I am particularly grateful for the time and effort you have invested in me. To my co-supervisor Xiufeng, who is also the data platform and visualization expert in our project, thank you for making the decision support tool I researched online, bringing in new perspectives, sharing coding packages, and recommending papers and conferences.I am deeply grateful to our project, FlexSUS, and to everyone who co-worked on it and made this research possible. Special thanks to Claire, who led this project and unified us along the way. I would also like to thank my colleagues and friends, both within and outside Environmental Technology and Management. To Axel, an amazing co-author, opponent, and previous PhD student leader, I sincerely thank you for all your invaluable support and continuous comments along the way. Sara and Wisdom, our former and current unit leaders, thanks for your valuable comments and exceptional leadership and care for each of us. Marianna, thank you for your warm welcome, helpful suggestions, and tour on my first campus visit. Kristina and Katrin, thank you for bringing all the support and joy to our PhD student group. Xiaoxuan and Pan, our visiting scholars, thanks for your new insight, comments, and cooperation.

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Dynamics of Individual Investments in Heating Technology

Holzhauer,

Krebs,

Jansen

2023

Springer Proceedings in Complexity

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An agent-based exploration of the effect of multi-criteria decisions on complex socio-technical heat transitions

Cited by 5 publications

References 46 publications

Agent-based modeling (ABM) for urban neighborhood energy systems: literature review and proposal for an all integrative ABM approach

Agent-based modeling (ABM) for urban neighborhood energy systems: literature review and proposal for an all integrative ABM approach

Decision Support for Energy Transition : Application of Multi-criteria Decision Making on Danish Residential Heating

Dynamics of Individual Investments in Heating Technology

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