An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

Abstract

Land-use/cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. A common approach to analyse and simulate LUCC as the result of individual decisions is agent-based modelling (ABM). However, ABM is often applied to simulate processes at local scales, while its application in regional studies is limited. This paper describes first a conceptual framework for ABM to analyse and explore regional LUCC processes. Second, the conceptual framework is represented by combining different concepts including agent typologies, farm trajectories and probabilistic decision-making processes. Finally, the framework is illustrated through a case study in the Netherlands, where processes of farm cessation, farm expansion and farm diversification are shaping the structure of the landscape. The framework is a generic, straightforward approach to analyse and explore regional LUCC with an explicit link to empirical approaches for parameterization of ABM.

Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

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Land-use change arising from rural land exchange: an agent-based simulation model

“…Agent-based models (ABMs) are used increasingly to simulate rural land-use change (Berger 2001;Valbuena et al 2010). Compared to the more traditional pattern-mimicking models (Hilferink and Rietveld 1998;Verburg and Overmars 2009) and bio-economic optimization models (van Ittersum et al 2008), ABMs are better able to represent the diversity of decisionmaking strategies that underpin land-use change (Bousquet and Le Page 2004;Parker et al 2008;Polhill et al 2011).…”

Evolution of land use-change modeling: routes of different schools of knowledge

“…Particularly, a systemic approach is able to examine the feedback that exists within socio-ecological systems. In this regard, many studies Gaucherel et al 2010;Valbuena et al 2010;Sohl et al 2010;Verburg et al 2010;Courtney et al 2015) emphasize the need to combine modeling approaches and techniques in order to further reduce the uncertainties of future landscapes. In order to monitor, model, and assess the interactions among and in humans/nature, temporal dimensions of landscapes have to be considered as significant as their spatial dimensions.…”