An Additive Statistical Modeling Approach to the Analysis of Transport Infrastructure Flood Risk-Based Resilience

Abstract

Australia is a very vulnerable region to lood events, and the frequency of lood events and damage has increased dramatically over the past decades. Although lood has impacted diverse types of buildings and built infrastructure, there has been limited research investigating lood risk management speciic to transport infrastructure in Australia and the factors that might inluence the resilience of the transport infrastructure to looding. To develop an appropriate design management system for roads and bridges speciic to risk assessment from looding requires a multitude of factors to be identiied and analyzed. In this study, we review the range of critical factors necessary to represent the resilience of bridges to extreme lood events and demonstrate a novel mathematical approach to evaluate the relationship between the bridge resilience and lood risk. We use additive statistical approach in arriving at a framework to evaluate the resilience of bridges. The indings conirm that metrological characteristics such as annual exceedance probability and probable maximum precipitation and structural integrity of the bridge represented by the structural age of the bridge and mechanical properties of the soils have a substantial impact on the resilience of the Australian transport infrastructure, particularly bridges located on main roads.