An Adaptive Multimodal Data Vessel Trajectory Prediction Model Based on a Satellite Automatic Identification System and Environmental Data

Abstract

Ship trajectory prediction is essential for ensuring safe route planning and to have advanced warning of the dangers at sea. With the development of deep learning, most of the current research has explored advanced prediction methods based on historical spatio-temporal Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. However, environmental factors such as sea wind and visibility also affect ship navigation in real-world maritime shipping. Therefore, developing reliable models utilizing multimodal data, such as AIS and environmental data, is challenging. In this research, we design an adaptive multimodal vessel trajectory data prediction model (termed AMD) based on satellite AIS and environmental data. The AMD model mainly consists of an AIS-based extraction network, an environmental-based extraction network, and a fusion block. In particular, this work considers multimodal data such as historical spatio-temporal information and environmental factors. Time stamps and distances are correlated with AIS and environmental data, and a multilayer perceptron and gated recurrent unit networks are used to design multimodal feature extraction networks. Finally, the fusion block realizes the fusion output of multimodal features to improve the reliability of the AMD model. Several quantitative and qualitative experiments are conducted using real-world AIS and multimodal environmental datasets. Numerous experimental results prove that prediction performance using multimodal data can ensure satisfactory accuracy and reliability while exhibiting a positive impact on improving maritime transport services.