An ABM of biting midge dynamics to understand Bluetongue outbreaks

Abstract

Bluetongue (BT) is a well-known vector-borne disease that infects ruminants such as sheep, cattle, and deer with high mortality rates. Recent outbreaks in Europe highlight the importance of understanding vector-host dynamics and potential courses of action to mitigate the damage that can done by BT. We present an agent-based model (ABM), entitled MidgePy, that considers the actions of individual Culicoides spp. biting midges and attempts to understand their role as vectors in BT outbreaks. Sensitivity analysis is performed and results indicate that midge survival rate has a significant impact on the probability of a BTV outbreak as well as its severity. This suggests that future methods to control BT spread could combine large-scale vaccination programs with biting midge population control measures such as the use of pesticides.