Amtsinhaber-Effekte in „unsicheren“ Wahlkreisen – eine Analyse anhand der Landtagswahlen in Brandenburg, Sachsen und Thüringen (1990 bis 2019)

Abstract

The elections in three East German Länder in 2019 did not only result in significant changes in the proportional vote share but also in severe shifts in constituency results between directly elected deputies . Against this backdrop this article analyses the election results in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia since 1990 . It shows that most of the constituencies have become contested . Hence, concepts dealing with “safe” constituencies for one party can, particularly in an increasingly fragmented party system, no longer explain election outcomes . Instead, the relevance of candidates for their respective electoral performances is taken into account . Overall, our results clearly suggest an incumbency factor .

Financing party branches: Evidence from the German federal system

“…Besides attracting pragmatic donations, governing state branches are likely more salient in the public and media, encouraging citizens and partisans to donate money to a branch in state government. It has been shown that rerunning candidates have a higher propensity to be reelected in elections, as officeholders usually enjoy higher media coverage and public attention than their challengers (Egner and Stoiber 2008;Stoiber and Egner 2008;Träger, Pollex, and Jacob 2020).…”

Party fragmentation and campaign spending: A subnational analysis of the German party system

“…Empirical analyses on federal elections and, more recently, in eastern German states suggest that this effect holds for party politics at the German federal and state levels (Reiser, 2013). Specifically, incumbent members of Länder parliaments ( Landesparlamente ) and the federal parliament tend to have a better chance of re-election than candidates running for the first time (Träger et al, 2020).…”