Ambulance Service Resource Planning for Extreme Temperatures: Analysis of Ambulance 999 Calls during Episodes of Extreme Temperature in London, UK

Papadakis, G.; Chalabi, Zaid; Thornes, John E.

doi:10.3390/atmos9050182

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Figure 1D simulates the exceedance probability of an event characterized by an extreme value distribution (i.e., “fat-tailed” distribution) where the probability of catastrophic damage is not small and can be significant. This type of characterization of extreme risks originated initially in engineering to quantify the catastrophic failures of structures ( 9 ) and has recently been applied to quantify the human health effects of extreme weather events ( 10 , 11 ). The premise of Figure 1D is that spiraling climate change will induce very large-scale changes in the extremes of environmental exposures ( Figure 1A ) which will, in turn, impact human health ( Figure 1B ).…”

Section: Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Catastrophic Health Impacts of Spiraling Climate Change: How Certain Can We Be About Their Magnitudes?

Chalabi

Foss

2020

Front. Public Health

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Recently, there has been a strong interest in the climate emergency and the human health impacts of climate change. Although estimates have been quoted, the modeling methods used have either been simplistic or opaque, making it difficult for policy makers to have confidence in these estimates. Providing central estimates of health impacts, without any quantification of their uncertainty, is deficient because such an approach does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in extreme environmental exposures associated with spiraling climate change and related health impacts. Furthermore, presenting only the uncertainty bounds around central estimates, without information on how the uncertainty in each of the model parameters and assumptions contribute to the total uncertainty, is insufficient because this approach hides those parameters and assumptions which contribute most to the total uncertainty. We propose a framework for calculating the catastrophic human health impacts of spiraling climate change and the associated uncertainties. Our framework comprises three building blocks: (A) a climate model to simulate the environmental exposure extremes of spiraling climate change; (B) a health impact model which estimates the health burdens of the extremes of environmental exposures; and (C) an analytical mathematical method which characterizes the uncertainty in (A) and (B), propagates the uncertainty in-between and through these models, and attributes the proportion of uncertainty in the health outcomes to model assumptions and parameter values. Once applied, our framework can be of significant value to policy makers because it handles uncertainty transparently while taking into account the complex interactions between climate and human health.

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Section: Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Catastrophic Health Impacts of Spiraling Climate Change: How Certain Can We Be About Their Magnitudes?

Chalabi

Foss

2020

Front. Public Health

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“…Careful resource planning is an important consideration for the health sector, especially in the face of an increased risk of extreme weather events. Papadakis et al [22] analyse emergency ambulance calls during episodes of extreme temperatures in London, UK, and propose a statistical physics based method to more accurately estimate the true burden on the health system during these events, which has potential for the ambulance service to more efficiently manage resources [22].…”

Section: Embedding Scientific Evidence Into Adaptation Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on Health to Better Manage Adaptation Action

Heaviside

2019

Atmosphere

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“…Nationally, only 4% of fire department responses are for fires, and a large majority, nearly 65%, are for medical response calls (US FEMA, 2018). There is a large body of scientific work on the impact of heat on ambulance calls (Bassil et al, 2011; Cheng, Xu, Zhao, Xie, Yang, et al, 2016; Cheng, Xu, Zhao, Xie, Zhang, et al, 2016; Guo, 2017; Papadakis et al, 2018) but not explicitly the burden of medical calls that falls to local fire departments. There is limited research on these heat impacts on police and fire departments across the United States, by various city sizes, and between different climates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Extreme Heat on Police and Fire Department Services in 23 U.S. Cities

2020

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Recent research suggests that extreme heat affects the demand for emergency services, including police and fire department incidents. Yet there is limited understanding of impacts across U.S. cities, with varying population sizes, and between different climates. This study sought to examine the daily utilization of police and fire department services, during hot days in 23 U.S. cities representing six climate zones using relative risk (RR) and time series analyses of daily police and fire department incidents. The warm season analyses utilized three temperature metrics: daily maximum temperature (T MAX), daily maximum heat index (HI MAX), and the preceding daily minimum temperature (T MIN). Across these cities, the RR of police department incidents on days where T MAX was at or above the 95th percentile significantly increased within a range from 3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.3%, 6.3%) to 57% (95% CI: 24.5%, 89.7%), compared with a nonhot day. At the same temperature thresholds, the RR of fire department dispatches increased from 6% (95% CI: 3.0%, 8.6%) to 18% (95% CI: 15.2%, 21.6%). These results remained consistent across temperature metrics and consecutive days of extreme heat. The estimated effects of daily maximum temperature, daily maximum heat index, and daily minimum temperature were nonlinear for police and fire department incidents across all cities. These findings inform climate change adaptation strategies, preparing budgets and personnel for emergency agencies to ensure resilience as periods of extreme heat increase in frequency, severity, and duration. Plain Language Summary Extreme heat has previously been found to increase violent crime, medical emergencies, and traffic accidents. However, the relationship between heat and increased demand for overall police services and fire department incidents is less understood. This study looks at 23 cities across the United States that vary in population, geography, and climate, to see how extreme heat influences daily demand for police and fire department services. City specific analyses can directly inform community managers on how to plan for future emergency service needs. We found that on days where the temperature was at or above the 95th percentile of historical temperatures for that month, police and fire departments were significantly more likely to experience higher incident numbers than on nonhot days in 7 of 17 (police) and 11 of 14 (fire) cities. The estimated effects of daily maximum temperature, daily maximum heat index, and daily minimum temperature were nonlinear for police and fire department incidents across all cities. These findings are critical to ensuring the resilience and capacity of emergency services and emergency service workers, so they can meet the needs of their citizens as periods of extreme heat become more common.

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Ambulance Service Resource Planning for Extreme Temperatures: Analysis of Ambulance 999 Calls during Episodes of Extreme Temperature in London, UK

Cited by 7 publications

References 22 publications

Catastrophic Health Impacts of Spiraling Climate Change: How Certain Can We Be About Their Magnitudes?

Catastrophic Health Impacts of Spiraling Climate Change: How Certain Can We Be About Their Magnitudes?

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on Health to Better Manage Adaptation Action

The Influence of Extreme Heat on Police and Fire Department Services in 23 U.S. Cities

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